A trip to Qatar is within reach for Mexico, who can officially punch their ticket into World Cup 2022 with a draw on Wednesday at Estadio Azteca against El Salvador.
El Tri overcame a pesky Honduran defence last weekend to win 1-0, while La Selecta were narrowly beaten by Costa Rica 2-1.
Match preview
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Not seeing the Mexicans in a top-two position in any CONCACAF competition is unusual for a side who have captured the Gold Cup 11 times.
It appears as though an eighth successive World Cup is in the cards for El Tri, but this campaign may go down as their most challenging road to the finals in quite some time.
Under Jorge Theiler, who replaced Gerardo Martino on the sidelines on Sunday for that one game, Mexico looked frustrated against a Honduras side who followed them all over the field with numerous players behind the ball.
We may be used to seeing this team put on a show with exceptional individual quality and flair, though in this qualifying campaign, the Mexicans have won their matches in a different way.
This time around, opposing teams smothered El Tri with tight man-marking, but Mexico have been able to counter that with some staunch defending of their own, collecting four successive clean sheets heading into this upcoming fixture.
When you face sides intent on shutting you down at all costs, remaining patient and chipping away is key, and that mentality has carried Mexico through this campaign, with 11 of their 15 goals scored coming in the second half.
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La Selecta have shown that they are capable of competing with the giants of CONCACAF, although it appears as though they are missing that little bit extra, which can make the difference between three points and none.
Hugo Perez saw his players carry the play for long stretches against Los Ticos this past weekend, holding 70% of the possession, but that critical final pass was missing.
El Salvador will have to wait another four years for another shot to make it to the finals for the first time since 1982, though there are still a lot of positives that this team can build on when this campaign closes.
Nine of their 13 games played in the Octagon were decided by a goal or fewer, as La Selecta were only able to pick up seven out of a possible 27 points in those tight contests.
As they prepare to move on from this experience, developing that killer instinct in the final third and moulding a proven number nine could make a massive difference for this program moving forward.
Even though they cannot qualify for the World Cup, having the potential to eliminate Mexico at the historic Azteca should be quite the motivator for this young team.
Historically speaking, they have only beaten El Tri once on Mexican soil, way back in 1954 (3-2) at the Central American and Caribbean Games.
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Team News
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Edson Alvarez was finally able to break the Hondurans' resolve on Sunday as he did well to find space on the near-post to head home the corner kick from Hector Herrera.
Their previous encounter against El Salvador was a chippy affair that saw a player from each side red-carded, as goals from Hector Moreno and Raul Jimenez gave El Tri all three points, with Guillermo Ochoa collecting the shutout.
Mexico had the same starting 11 on Sunday as they did against the USA last week, with Diego Lainez and Uriel Antuna coming on as substitutes to collect their 17th and 29th caps, respectively.
Cristian Gil scored his first international goal for the Salvadorans last weekend, with the assist coming from Kevin Reyes.
Gil was one of several newcomers who featured in the starting 11 against Los Ticos along with Romulo Villalobos, Christian Martinez, Bryan Landaverde, Kevin Santamaria and Reyes.
Darwin Ceren will have another opportunity to become the most capped player in El Salvador's history after sitting out of their fixture versus Costa Rica, while a goal from Nelson Bonilla would move him beyond Rudis Corrales into fifth all-time for his country, having tallied 17 times himself on the international stage.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Arteaga, Vasquez, Montes, Sanchez; Herrera, Lainez, Romo; Lozano, Jimenez, Corona
El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Larin, Dominguez, Claros, Tamacas; Orellana, Ceren; Hernandez, Calvillo, Reyes; Rivas
We say: Mexico 2-0 El Salvador
It takes them a while to get going, but even though they have not looked as sharp as we are used to seeing, Mexico always seem to find a way, and we expect them to eventually solve a well-organised Salvadoran side to book their spot at the World Cup this November.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 65.65%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 10.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.51%) and 3-0 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.29%), while for a El Salvador win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Mexico in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mexico.
