Middlesbrough play host to Stoke City on Saturday afternoon knowing that it may take two wins to ensure that they earn a spot in the Championship playoffs.
At a time when Boro sit two points adrift of the top six, Stoke are down in 12th position, albeit after putting together one of their best periods of form this campaign.
Match preview
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While Chris Wilder will probably still be stunned that his Middlesbrough side have dropped outside of the playoffs by such a margin, he will recongise that there is no time to dwell on their recent disappointments.
That appeared to be the case as Boro impressively made light work of Cardiff City on Wednesday evening, goals from Marcus Tavernier and Riley McGree ending a five-match winless streak.
That result has moved Boro back to within two points of sixth-placed Sheffield United, who still have Fulham to come on the final day of the campaign, and Wilder will be optimistic that two more wins will get them over the line.
Nevertheless, Wilder is still struggling to get a tune out of his forwards, McGree netting two of the team's recent three goals after only being drafted into the side as a replacement for the suspended Matt Crooks.
Whether that alters Wilder's thinking ahead of this contest remains to be seen, but the January arrival has effectively made himself undroppable after stepping up to the plate when his side were on the brink of becoming one of the also-rans in the promotion race.
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Stoke fall into that category, the Potters dropping out of contention on the back of an eight-match winless streak which lasted until the middle of March.
Since then, however, Stoke have been one of the form teams in the division, recording 15 points from a possible 21 to give Michael O'Neill a chance of keeping his job at the bet365 Stadium.
The argument will be that the resurgence has only come with this group of players competing with less pressure and expectation on their shoulders, but it has left the powers-that-be with plenty of justification if they make the decision to retain the former Northern Ireland manager.
Most impressively during their recent run, Stoke have conceded just four goals in seven games, keeping four clean sheets in the process, and it has ensured that the goals of Jacob Brown have proven more decisive.
The forward has scored in four of their recent victories, taking his tally for the campaign to 13 from 43 league appearances.
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Team News
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While Crooks will return to the Middlesbrough squad for this game, it is unclear whether the midfielder will earn an immediate recall.
A three-day turnaround boosts his chances, as it does with the likes of Andraz Sporar and Aaron Connolly who will want to feature in attack.
Dael Fry is in line to make an appearance in the squad after a calf injury and becomes an option to replace Sol Bamba.
Barring any fitness issues, O'Neill may decide to stick with the Stoke XI which edged out Queens Park Rangers last time out.
If there is to be a change, it could come between the sticks with Joe Bursik surprisingly being given the nod ahead of in-form goalkeeper Jack Bonham for that fixture.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Daniels; Dijksteel, Bamba, McNair; Jones, McGree, Howson, Tavernier, Bola; Balogun, Watmore
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Bonham; Wilmot, Jagielka, Harwood-Bellis; Smith, Baker, Allen, Sawyers, Tymon; Brown, Maja
We say: Middlesbrough 1-0 Stoke City
This has all the makings of a tense match for Boro, who will be wary of a Stoke side who are performing well away from home. However, Boro have generally been the masters of grinding out victories at the Riverside Stadium this season, and we are predicting another low-scoring win here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 48.51%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 25.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.23%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
