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Millwall logo
Championship | Gameweek 17
Nov 6, 2021 at 3pm UK
The Den
Derby logo

Millwall
1 - 1
Derby

Malone (45+1')
Mitchell (58'), Cooper (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ebosele (44')
Byrne (27')
Byrne (64')

Preview: Millwall vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seeking their third successive home victory in the Championship, Millwall welcome basement club Derby County to The Den on Saturday afternoon.

The Rams, meanwhile, are searching for just their fourth league win of the campaign and their first since beating Reading in September.


Match preview

Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured on September 25, 2021© Reuters

Millwall's impressive run of form in the Championship continued with a slender 1-0 victory at home against Reading on Tuesday night.

After a goalless first half, the deadlock was eventually broken in the 71st minute when Benik Afobe tapped in from close range to seal all three points for the Lions for the sixth time this season.

Millwall, who have now won five of their last seven league games, have climbed up to ninth in the table, just one point behind Queens Park Rangers and Stoke City in the playoffs.

Gary Rowett is now preparing to face his former side Derby County, who have beaten the Lions in their last two meetings at The Den, including a 1-0 win for the Rams last season.

The 47-year-old will be looking to improve his managerial record against Derby, as he has only won one of his five league matches at home against them, accumulating just four points from a possible 15 available.

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney on September 14, 2021© Reuters

Derby extended their unwanted winless run in the Championship to six matches when they were beaten 2-1 away against relegation rivals Barnsley on Wednesday night.

Sam Baldock tucked away his effort from close range to put the Rams in front midway through the first half, however the Tykes were able to turn the game on its head with strikes either side of half time from Victor Adeboyejo and Aaron Leya Iseka.

Wayne Rooney's men remain at the bottom of the table with just five points and are still seven points adrift of safety.

Derby's form will need to improve quickly if they are to edge themselves out of the relegation zone, but with tricky encounters against Bournemouth, Fulham and Queens Park Rangers to follow Saturday's trip to Millwall, their chances of ending their winless run may be slim.

However, one hopeful statistic for Rooney's men heading to the capital is that the away team have won each of the last five league meetings between Millwall and Derby, with each victory coming by a one-goal margin. The Rams have also won three of their last four away matches against sides from London so they can take some confidence into this weekend's fixture.

Millwall Championship form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Derby County Championship form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L


Team News

Millwall's Jake Cooper celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on October 19, 2021© Reuters

Millwall's only absentee for Saturday's game is midfielder George Evans, who continues to recover from a broken hand.

Rowett is unlikely to make too many, if any, changes to his starting lineup, so attacking trio Jed Wallace, Matt Smith and Afobe could all retain their places up front.

Like the Lions, Derby also have only one player unavailable, with Krystian Bielik ruled out for at least a few more weeks with a knee injury.

Midfielder Graeme Shinnie will be in contention to start ahead of either Jason Knight or Max Bird after he served a one-match suspension against Barnsley.

Baldock should retain his place in attack alongside Colin Kazim-Richards, while Ravel Morrison and Tom Lawrence are expected to provide width from the flanks.

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Leonard, Hutchinson, Cooper, Wallace; Saville, Kieftenbeld, Mitchell; Wallace, Smith, Afobe

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Jagielka, Davies, Buchanan; Morrison, Bird, Shinnie, Lawrence; Kazim-Richards, Baldock


SM words green background

We say: Millwall 1-0 Derby County

Each of the last four games involving Derby have seen both teams score, however we are expecting a low-scoring cagey affair at The Den.

Considering the form of both sides heading into Saturday's match, the hosts should be able to do enough to edge out the Rams on home soil.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 45.68%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Millwall vs Derby

Millwall
68.8%
Draw
16.7%
Derby County
14.6%
48
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Derby County manager Wayne Rooney on September 14, 2021
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