CF Montreal can match their longest unbeaten run from a year ago when their Major League Soccer campaign resumes on Saturday versus Atlanta United at Saputo Stadium.
Montreal have earned points in five consecutive league contests, beginning with a 3-3 draw versus the Five Stripes, who have only captured one domestic encounter since that result, dropping a 2-1 decision to Inter Miami last weekend.
Match preview
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With the pressure and demand of the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) no longer on their shoulders, Wilfried Nancy has seen his side begin to play up to their potential at long last.
Their hard-fought draw versus Philadelphia a week ago moved them into a playoff position for the first time this year, tying a franchise record set in 2016 and 2017 for the longest unbeaten run on the road (four).
In recent weeks they have done a great job at responding to early adversity, conceding the opening goal in five of their previous six matches in all competitions, yet still managing a win or a draw in each of those encounters.
While resilience is one thing which Nancy has praised from his squad, he has asked the group to show more determination and intensity from the opening whistle.
Following their match with the Union, the Montreal boss said that his players put themselves into several unnecessary situations in an encounter which ended in a 1-1 draw.
Defensively they seem to be getting things together, looking a lot more compact on the back end, conceding just a single goal in three consecutive fixtures after allowing multiple strikes in their first four games of this MLS campaign.
Montreal's attacking movement and creativity generally filter through their star midfielder, a clever number eight, who they acquired in 2021 from the Chicago Fire in exchange for General Allocation Money.
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Atlanta spent a lot of money over the off-season in an attempt to catapult into a contending team, as they aim for their second career MLS title.
Lately, those investments have not paid off, with the Five Stripes going winless in their previous three league fixtures.
Gonzalo Pineda saw his side come out aggressively to begin their match last Sunday at Inter Miami, but they failed to maintain that early intensity and began to fade in the second half.
That performance summed up how their season has gone recently, as they had the majority of the possession (64%) and shots on target (7-2) but could not create enough clear-cut opportunities to trouble Miami keeper Nick Marsman.
We have seen a mixed bag of good and poor displays from this squad full of high-priced individuals, and perhaps the best news at the moment is that they sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, despite going through a bit of a dry spell.
According to many pundits their performances of late have been underwhelming, although it could be a lot worse if not for some late heroics.
The Five Stripes have scored four goals in league play this year beyond the 85th minute, earning seven points as a result, including a single point in their previous meeting with Montreal when Atlanta erased a 3-1 deficit late in the second half.
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Team News
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Djordje Mihailovic is being talked about as a potential league MVP in the early stages of the year, with the Montreal midfielder leading the team in goals with four to go along with two assists as he has been invaluable to them since his move from the Windy City.
Alistair Johnston is starting to get a feel for his new club as he leads them in assists with three, while Romell Quioto has been involved in a scoring play for Montreal in each of their last three games, assisting on the equalising goal from Kei Kamara in their draw versus Philly.
Mason Toye and Bjorn Johnsen remain sidelined with an adductor and foot injury, respectively, but there was some good news in their previous match, as Samuel Piette saw his first action of this MLS campaign, replacing Ismael Kone in the second half.
On Saturday, Rudy Camacho played in his 100th match for Montreal across all competitions, while Sebastian Breza, Johnston, Kamal Miller and Victor Wanyama are the only players on the squad who have started all eight games for them so far this season.
Ronaldo Cisneros, who is currently on loan to Atlanta from Guadalajara in Mexico, fired home his first of the season in their defeat to Inter Miami.
Josef Martinez remains out after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his knee, and Matheus Rossetto has a pulled hamstring and is listed as doubtful this weekend.
Osvaldo Alonso is nursing a torn ACL, Brad Guzan will be out long term after suffering a ruptured Achilles, Dylan Castanheira continues to recover from an Achilles problem himself and Machop Chol is still out with a leg injury.
Bobby Shuttleworth had a tough debut as the Five Stripes backup keeper conceded on the only two shots fired his way versus the Herons, while the club will be counting on more production from Thiago Almada and Brooks Lennon, who each tallied once in their dramatic comeback draw against the Montrealers back in March.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Camacho, Waterman; Lappalainen, Piette, Kone, Johnston; Mihailovic, Torres; Quioto
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Gutman, M. Robinson, Campbell, DeJohn; Sosa, Ibarra; Lennon, Moreno, Almada; Cisneros
We say: CF Montreal 2-0 Atlanta United
Historically, Atlanta have never gone goalless in any MLS encounter against their Saturday adversaries, but without Martinez, they are not the same team, and we do not expect them to create a ton of opportunities against a side who have played a much stingier defensive game in recent weeks.
It seems as though being eliminated from the CCL was a blessing in disguise for Montreal, who have settled into quite a groove, limiting the number of opportunities of their opponents while their best players have shown up when needed.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
