With a win or draw on Saturday versus Orlando City at Saputo Stadium, CF Montreal would set a new record for the longest unbeaten run in franchise history since joining Major League Soccer in 2012.
A goal eight minutes from the end increased the Montreal undefeated streak to six games domestically, while the Lions have won three of their last four MLS affairs, defeating Charlotte FC 2-1 on Saturday.
Match preview
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It is essential to remain patient and trust the process in a lengthy campaign, and CF Montreal are living proof of what you can achieve with that mentality.
Wilfried Nancy saw his team begin 2022 poorly, losing their opening three games, with only a single point in their first four.
Since the middle of March, though, these players have shown plenty of resiliency, claiming 14 points in their previous six domestic fixtures, despite conceding the opener four times.
At the moment, Montreal seem to have found their rhythm, scoring timely goals and maintaining their composure at the back when leading.
After squandering a half-time lead to the Philadelphia Union in their second match of the year, they have done a much better job at holding their positions when ahead, having moved up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
When Montreal can tally multiple times in a game, they rarely wind up empty-handed, unbeaten since October 2020 when scoring more than once.
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Less than a week after a poor showing at home to the New York Red Bulls, Oscar Pareja saw a better effort from his side against Charlotte, though there are still some things within this squad that need fixing.
While Pareja did not have any complaints about their first-half performance on Saturday, he was not pleased with the effort his players showed in the second 45 minutes, as they lacked a lot of attacking intensity to put that fixture out of reach.
The Lions have yet to lose in 2022 when tallying first, outscoring Montreal 4-0 over their previous two outings, including a 2-0 win against them to start the year.
They have not lost at Saputo Stadium since 2018, capturing three points in each of their last three visits there and outscoring the Montrealers 6-0 over that stretch.
Following a defeat, Orlando have usually had been able to answer with a solid bounce-back game, failing to lose consecutive domestic fixtures since the fall of 2021 when they dropped four straight contests from September 10- 25.
This team have not done enough to hurt their standing in the Eastern Conference, though they have not helped their chances much either, as their last winning streak of more than two games dates back to June 2021.
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Team News
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Kamal Miller was a key contributor for Montreal in their victory last weekend, scoring the opener after four minutes before assisting on the winner by Joaquin Torres late in the second half.
Djordje Mihailovic assisted on their opening goal against Atlanta, his fourth of the year and 20th since joining the club, becoming only the sixth player in franchise history to achieve that feat, while Victor Wanyama hit 5,000 minutes played in MLS.
Wanyama and Ismael Kone will not be available for this encounter because of yellow card accumulation, Mason Toye has an adductor injury and Bjorn Johnsen is still recovering from a foot problem.
Antonio Carlos and Tesho Akindele missed another match for Orlando last weekend with left and right thigh injuries, respectively, while Robin Jansson recorded his 100th appearance for the Lions across all competitions, though he will not be in the lineup this weekend after receiving another caution.
Mauricio Pereyra picked up his 27th career assist for Orlando in their victory last Saturday, setting a club record in the process, while Facundo Torres netted the game-winner, his second of the campaign, and Benji Michel picked up a secondary assist on the opening goal by Ruan.
Pedro Gallese is tied with Gabriel Slonina of the Chicago Fire for clean sheets this season with five and has not conceded in his previous two matches versus Montreal, while also not allowing a goal in his last two games played at Saputo Stadium.
The Lions made a move before the end of the MLS Primary Transfer Window, bringing in Jake Mulraney from Atlanta United in exchange for up to $275,000 in General Allocation Money.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Waterman, Camacho, Miller; Johnston, Piette, Brault-Guillard, Lappalainen; J. Torres, Mihailovic; Quioto
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Ruan, Schlegel, Smith, Moutinho; Urso, Mendez; F. Torres, Pereyra, Michel; Pato
We say: CF Montreal 1-1 Orlando City
Montreal have plenty of momentum heading into this encounter, though they have struggled in previous fixtures against the Lions, winning only once in their last six meetings.
Given how well each team defend without the ball, we expect there will be little time or space for the creative players on each side to make some magic happen, and there is unlikely to be a lot of chances at either end of the field.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
