CF Montreal and Philadelphia Union will go in search of their first MLS win of the 2021-22 season when they lock horns at the Saputo Stadium on Saturday.
The hosts will head into this one seeking to get one over the hosts having failed to win any of the last six meetings between the sides since 2019.
Match preview
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Montreal were denied a dream start to the 2021-22 MLS campaign as they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Orlando City at the Exploria Stadium last Sunday.
Following a drab first half, the game sparked into life four minutes after the interval when Alexandre Pato broke the deadlock before Benji Michel made sure of the result 10 minutes later.
Prior to that, Montreal fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Santos Laguna in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions League round-of-16 tie on February 16 before overturning this deficit in the second leg eight days later courtesy of a thrilling 3-0 victory.
While Wilfried Nancy's side will be seeking to return to winning ways and get their league campaign up and running, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the last six meetings between the sides since 2019, claiming two draws and losing four in that time.
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Philadelphia Union, on the other hand, put on a resilient display as they fought back from one goal down to salvage a 1-1 draw with Minnesota United last in last Saturday's league opener.
In a cagey affair at the Subaru Park, Robin Lod put the visitors ahead in the 23rd minute but 30-year-old forward Cory Burke levelled the scores 12 minutes later to force a share of the spoils.
This followed a somewhat encouraging pre-season run, where they picked up two draws and one win from three friendly fixtures, scoring four goals and conceding three in that time.
Jim Curtins's side head into Saturday's game unbeaten in all but one of their last 11 games in all competitions — claiming five wins and five draws — with a 2-1 loss against New York City in December's playoff tie being the only exception.
However, they have managed just one win in their last 15 games on the road across all competitions, claiming eight draws and losing six since a 1-0 victory at DC United back in May 2021.
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Team News
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Montreal will take to the pitch without the services of Ivory Coast youngster Jean-Aniel Assi, who is currently recuperating from a muscle problem.
He is joined on the club's injury table by 23-year-old forward Mason Toye, who has been out of action since last August through a shoulder injury.
Veteran forward Romell Quioto is also out of contention for Nancy's side after receiving his marching orders against Orlando City last time out.
Meanwhile, despite failing to come away with all three points, Curtin will be impressed by his side's display against Minnesota United and we expect the 42-year-old manager to name a similar starting side.
Should that be the case, we could see the trio of Burke, Daniel Gazdag and Inter Miami loanee Julian Carranza handling business at the attacking end of the pitch.
At the back, the duo of Jakob Glesnes and Jack Elliott was the preferred centre-back pairing against the Loons and we expect them to retain their place in the starting lineup, shielding Andre Blake between the sticks.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Camacho, Johnston; Lappalainen, Piette, Wanyama, Brault-Guillard; Mihailovic; Toye, Kamara
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Glesnes, Elliott, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Burke, Gazdag, Carranza
We say: CF Montreal 1-2 Philadelphia Union
Both sides will head into Saturday's game seeking their first win of the season after failing to pick up an opening-day victory in the league's curtain-raiser last weekend. The Us have been impressive in the recent history of this fixture and we predict they will extend their dominance and come away with all three points, albeit by a slender margin.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 34.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Philadelphia Union in this match.
