The first all-Canadian matchup of this Major League Soccer regular season takes place at Saputo Stadium on Saturday as CF Montreal host the Vancouver Whitecaps.
After beginning the campaign with three straight defeats, Montreal have captured two in a row domestically, defeating the New York Red Bulls 2-1 last Saturday, while the Caps have the second-worst record in the league following a 3-2 loss at home to the Portland Timbers.
Match preview
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The start of the 2022 campaign was demanding for Wilfried Nancy and his side, who last week looked a lot more like the team we saw in the early stages of 2021.
Despite conceding in the 14th minute, they settled into their match against the Red Bulls, showing tremendous poise on the backline as the bounces eventually went their way, scoring twice in the final 20 minutes.
Their three-match unbeaten run has them back in the playoff conversation, currently trailing the Columbus Crew by a single point for that final spot.
With the dream of a CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) title no longer a possibility, Montreal look like a rejuvenated squad, showing a lot more stability defensively in their previous encounter.
Since their CCL elimination at the hands of Cruz Azul back in March, they have shown a ton of resilience, conceding first in their previous three MLS games, yet still managing to collect seven points.
Montreal are at their best when playing as a solid collective unit that can build from the back, though we have seen them display some unexpected firepower early on in this campaign, scoring the most goals in the Eastern Conference (11).
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Not even the friendly confines of BC Place Stadium was enough to keep the Whitecaps momentum going a week ago, as they suffered their fourth defeat of the year.
In a passionate speech on the field following that loss, head coach Vanni Sartini talked about the importance of being aggressive from the get-go, which we did not see from them until at least a half-hour into that encounter.
That message from Sartini is in line with what we have seen from Vancouver this month, as they have taken far too long to get into their fixtures, with their last three goals coming beyond the 70th minute.
The Caps face a big test in the upcoming weeks, as their next three games are on the road where they are winless in six consecutive encounters, including the playoffs last season, having been outscored 9-2 away from home in 2022.
Their manager continues to mix up his lineup and change formations, though many critics are beginning to question if that might be affecting the continuity within this group.
Vancouver's last victory at Saputo Stadium was back in 2017, as they have only managed to score once against them in their two previous visits to La Belle Province, with both of those matches ending in defeat for the Caps.
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Team News
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Rudy Camacho and Romell Quioto each tallied a goal for Montreal at Red Bell Arena last week, while Alistair Johnston collected his first assist of the year.
Mason Toye has an adductor strain, Samuel Piette continues to recover from an ankle injury and Bjorn Johnsen is out with a foot problem.
Tomas Giraldo remains sidelined due to a leg issue, and Mathieu Choiniere is unlikely to be available with an injured foot.
Last week, Montreal signed midfielder Jojea Kwizera to a one-year deal with options for 2023, 2024 and 2025, after the Congolese youngster was chosen with the 15th overall pick in the 2022 MLS SuperDraft.
Whitecaps attacking midfielder Ryan Gauld was named to the MLS Team of the Week, scoring his first goal of the season in the loss to Portland.
The Scotsman also had one key pass, one successful tackle and two successful dribbles, as well as winning six duels with an 82% pass accuracy.
Cristian Dajome scored his first of the season last week to go along with one assist, Pedro Vite has featured in every Caps encounter so far this year, and there are rumours this week that the club are close to signing midfielder Andres Cubas from Nimes in Ligue 2 in France.
Leonard Owusu sat out of their match on Saturday with a right foot contusion, Tristan Blackmon started on the bench, Michael Baldisimo was sidelined because of discomfort in his right ankle, Erik Godoy remains out with tightness in his right calf and Caio Alexandre will not be ready to play this weekend following his foot surgery.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Camacho, Waterman; Lappalainen, Wanyama, Thorkelsson, Johnston; Mihailovic; Quioto, Kamara
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Jungwirth, Veselinovic, Gutierrez; Brown, Teibert, Berhalter, Dajome; Gauld; Caicedo, White
We say: CF Montreal 1-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
Montreal look like a confident side at the moment and are starting to play to their strengths, although the same cannot be said about their West Coast rivals, who have not been nearly as aggressive as we saw down the stretch of 2021.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
