Seeking to snap their three-game losing streak and move into the relegation playoff spot, Moreirense play host to Vizela in round 34 of the Primeira Liga on Saturday.
The Vizelenses, who have confirmed their safety, will head into the game looking to get one over the hosts after losing 1-0 when the sides met back in January's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Ricardo Sa Pinto's Moreirense suffered a huge blow in their race against the drop last Saturday when they fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of 10-man Estoril Praia.
Following a drab first half at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Andre Franco struck in the 64th minute to hand the hosts their first win in seven games.
Moreirense have now lost each of their most recent three outings, scoring once and conceding four goals since picking up successive wins over Gil Vicente and Tondela back in April.
With 26 points from 33 games, Os verdes e brancos are currently 17th in the Primeira Liga standings, one point adrift of 16th-placed Tondela in the relegation playoff spot.
Off the back of an impressive seventh-placed finish last season, Moreirense's underwhelming campaign has been owing to their struggles on home turf, where they hold the league's joint-worst record with 15 points from 16 outings.
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Vizela, on the other hand, continue to struggle for form as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Maritimo at the Estadio do FC Vizela last Sunday.
Kiko Bondoso struck his sixth goal of the season in the 56th minute to put the hosts ahead, but Rafik Guitane restored parity five minutes later to force a share of the spoils.
Vizela head into the weekend winless in all but one of their last five outings — picking up one draw and losing three — with a 2-1 victory over Arouca on April 22 being the only exception.
Alvaro Pacheco's men have won seven, drawn 12 and lost 14 of their 33 games this season to collect 33 points and sit 14th in the league standings, six points above Tondela in the relegation places.
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Team News
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Moreirense remain without the services of Kevin Mirallas after the former Everton man sustained a muscle injury 39 minutes into the game against Boavista on May 1.
Portuguese defender Paulinho Mota is back available for selection as the 30-year-old has now served his suspension after receiving a red card in the aforementioned game.
Vizela, meanwhile, will take to the pitch without Portuguese defender Bruno Wilson, who has been out of action since coming off injured against Benfica back in March.
He is joined on the Vizelenses injury table by fellow countryman Kiki Afonso, who is set to sit out his seventh straight game through injury.
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Frimpong, Rosic, Santos, Silva; Mane; Junior, Amador, Ramos, Franco; Martins
Vizela possible starting lineup:
Silva; Juliao, Anderson, Fernandes, Ofori; Samu, Claudemir, Mendez; Bondoso, Schettine, Cassiano
We say: Moreirense 2-1 Vizela
Given the stakes of the game for Vizela, we expect them to come out guns blazing in search of all three points to leapfrog Tondela into the relegation playoff spot. They take on an opposing side who will be playing only for pride having recently confirmed their survival. While we expect the visitors to put up a fight, we are tipping Moreirense to come away with a slender win and complete a league double over the Vizelenses.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
