On the hunt for a first win of the Copa Libertadores group stage, Uruguayan outfit Nacional welcome Atletico Nacional to the Parque Central on Wednesday.
The hosts suffered a 2-0 defeat to Argentinos Juniors in their opening game, while the Colombian outfit kicked their campaign off with a 2-0 win over Universidad Catolica.
Match preview
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Nacional travelled to Buenos Aires for their first game of the Copa Libertadores group stage, and came away with a disappointing 2-0 defeat.
Gabriel Avalos opened the scoring for Argentinos Juniors in the first half, before Emanuel Herrera found the net in the 88th minute to seal their win and send the Uruguayan side home empty-handed.
Before that, they sealed their second consecutive Uruguayan Primera Division title, and the 48th in their history, as they beat Rentistas 4-0 on aggregate over two legs.
A Gonzalo Bergessio brace and a Mathias Laborda goal gave Alejandro Capuccio's side a three-goal lead going into the second leg, and Bergessio netted his third goal of the tie in the away leg to cap off an impressive final performance.
Capuccio's side can now put their full focus on the Copa Libertadores, as they look to bounce back from the opening defeat and put their first points on the board.
Their opponents made a winning start to the group stage, as they defeated Chilean outfit Universidad Catolica 2-0 at home.
Goals from Andres Andrade and Jefferson Duque soon before half time sealed an important win for Alexandre Guimaraes's side, sending them into the top two of group F, level on points and goal difference with Argentinos Juniors.
El Siempre Verde had to go through two rounds of qualifying to reach the group stage, firstly beating Paraguayan outfit Club Guarani 5-0 on aggregate.
They then took on Club Libertad in the final qualifying round, and fell to a 1-0 defeat in the away leg.
Guimaraes's men quickly turned that deficit round though, winning the second leg 4-1 thanks to goals from Jarlan Barrera, Baldomero Perlaza, Jonathan Alvez and Duque.
They will now look to record a second victory of the group stage which would put them firmly in pole position to qualify for the round of 16.
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Team News
Gonzalo Bergessio will lead the line for Nacional, having netted three goals in the 4-0 aggregate victory over Rentistas in the domestic final.
He could again be supported by Leandro Fernandez, Andres D'Alessandro and Brian Ocampo, although that attacking line looked far from threatening in the defeat to Argentinos Juniors.
Meanwhile, Renzo Orihuela and Guzman Corujo could partner up again at the back, after they were trusted to play at the heart of the Nacional defence in the opening game of the group stage.
Atletico Nacional frontman Jefferson Duque has been in clinical form this season, registering 11 goals and three assists in 16 domestic games, as well as netting the second goal in the 2-0 victory over Universidad Catolica in the Copa Libertadores group stage.
Andres Andrade also found the net in that game, and he will offer plenty of attacking threat from the left-hand side.
Yerson Mosquera and Emanuel Oliveira kept a clean sheet in that opening victory, and they are expected to partner up again at centre-back on Wednesday.
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Centurion; Gabrielli, Corujo, Orihuela, Candido; Carballo, Trasante; Ocampo, D'Alessandro, Fernandez; Bergessio
Atletico Nacional possible starting lineup:
Quintana; Candelo, Mosquera, Oliveira, Banguero; Perlaza, Rovira; Barrera, Londono, Andrade; Duque
We say: Nacional 1-2 Atletico Nacional
With the sides coming in on a fairly level playing field, we see the visitors just edging this game purely thanks to their boosted confidence from the opening victory last time out.
Nacional definitely have the ability to hurt sides, but the Atletico Nacional defence looked solid in that 2-0 win, and that should see them to a narrow victory.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.29%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.75%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
