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Nacional
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 29
Apr 26, 2021 at 7pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Vitoria de Guimaraes

Nacional
1 - 0
Guimaraes

Mendes (7')
Fernandes (15'), Rochez (44'), Azouni (51'), Silvio (59'), Ibrahim Alhassan (81'), Bessa (84'), Rochinha (84')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Nacional vs. Vitoria de Guimaraes - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bottom side Nacional are running out of time to save themselves from Primeira Liga relegation as they get set to welcome Vitoria de Guimaraes to Estadio da Madeira on Monday night.

The White and Black have lost 10 games in a row, while opponents Guimaraes have also been in bad form of late and are now sixth in the table.


Match preview

A general shot of Marcus Edwards celebrating with teammates for Vitoria de Guimaraes in June 2020© Reuters

Not since beating Boavista 1-0 on February 9 have Nacional avoided defeat in the league, collecting zero points from the last 30 on offer.

The most recent of those losses came at Tondela on Thursday, with Jhon Murillo cancelling out Joao Camacho's early opener before Ricardo Alves snatched the win for the hosts.

Former Guimaraes boss Manuel Machado has been unable to turn the tide since returning to the club last month, and relegation now seems a formality for Nacional.

Machado's men are six points off the relegation playoff spot and seven points adrift of Boavista in 15th place, and they still have Sporting Lisbon and Benfica to play.

Guimaraes are hardly in the best of form, though, having lost six of their last seven matches, the exception being a 1-0 win against Santa Clara.

The Conquistadores have failed to score in four of those games and have conceded 14 times, while away from home they are without a goal in five matches.

That run includes a 1-0 loss at Porto on Thursday - Moussa Marega scoring the only goal of the game for the title chasers.

Despite their poor run of form, Guimaraes are in possession of a Europa Conference League qualifying-round spot, though Santa Clara and Moreirense are two and three points behind respectively.

Should the visitors go an eighth away game without a win, they could well end the matchweek down in eighth, but they have lost just one of their last five meetings with Nacional.

The most recent encounter between the sides finished 3-1 to Guimaraes three months ago, though this corresponding fixture last season ended 1-0 in Nacional's favour.

Nacional Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Ricardo Quaresma pictured in December 2018© Reuters

Nuno Borges was sent off five minutes after coming on as a substitute in Nacional's defeat to Tondela and will therefore miss this contest through suspension.

Curacao international Kenji Gorre was on the scoresheet the last time these sides met, but he had to be replaced at half time against Tondela.

That could see Brayan Riascos come into the side, while Bryan Rochez is another player pushing for a recall to the starting lineup.

As for the visitors, Joseph Amoah remains sidelined and Ricardo Quaresma - another of those on target in the previous meeting - was not fit enough to feature against Porto.

Guimaraes have been operating with a five-man defence and that should remain the case here, with Falaye Sacko and Gideon Mensah at wing-back.

Elsewhere, Mikel Agu is in contention to come into central midfield in place of Andre Andre.

Nacional possible starting lineup:
Filipe; Freitas, Pedrao, Correia, Kal; Alhassan, Azouni; Camacho, Bessa, Riascos; Mendes

Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Fernandes, Amaro, Mumin; Sacko, Pepelu, Agu, Mensah; Edwards, Estupinan, Rochinha


SM words green background

We say: Nacional 0-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes

Guimaraes are at risk of losing their grip on a European spot if they fail to snap their terrible run, but this trip to Nacional presents a good opportunity to get back on track.

The division's bottom side have lost 10 games in a row and we cannot see that streak ending here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Nacional vs Guimaraes

Nacional
23.1%
Draw
11.5%
Vitoria de Guimaraes
65.4%
26
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Porto coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on April 7, 2021
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Thursday's Primeira Liga predictions including Porto vs. Vitoria de Guimaraes
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon1111003953433
2Porto119022882027
3Benfica108112872125
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara117041412221
5Braga116231911820
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes115331211118
7FamalicaoFamalicao11452129317
8MoreirenseMoreirense115241514117
9Casa Pia113441014-413
10Rio AveRio Ave113351020-1012
11Gil Vicente112451419-510
12Estoril PraiaEstoril11245816-810
13AVS11245919-1010
14BoavistaBoavista11236715-89
15Estrela Amadora112361020-109
16Nacional10226615-98
17AroucaArouca11227619-138
18SC FarenseFarense11128518-135


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