Following a one-year hiatus, Atlanta United are back in the playoffs, hoping to make up for lost time when they head to Yankee Stadium on Sunday for a date with New York City FC in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs.
The Pigeons came back to draw the Philadelphia Union on Decision Day, earning the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and a home playoff fixture, while the 2018 MLS champions erased a 1-0 deficit in their final regular season encounter, beating FC Cincinnati 2-1.
Match preview
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The Boys in Blue have qualified for the MLS Cup Playoffs for a sixth consecutive year, although it was a much bumpier road to get there this time around.
Their five-year postseason streak seemed to be coming to an end after going winless in six consecutive games before they smashed DC United 6-0 and went unbeaten in their final four matches to keep that streak alive.
They have put themselves in plenty of good positions to capture the MLS Cup through the years heading into the postseason, although New York have struggled in the games that count, namely in the knockout stage.
Only once in their history have the Boys in Blue won their opening playoff fixture, be it in the opening round or further along, losing in a dramatic penalty shootout in 2020 to Orlando City.
He is only in his second year on the job, but by all accounts, the inconsistency that his players showed in the fall has many fans questioning whether Ronny Deila is the right man to lead this team in the future, so there will be a lot of pressure on him to get his side to perform to their capabilities.
New York are blessed with a ton of attacking options that opponents will need to be aware of down the flanks, and that could be an advantage for them heading into this fixture against an Atlanta team who leave plenty of gaps in behind their wing-backs, areas that New York will try to exploit.
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For a long time, it appeared that the 2021 campaign would be a complete write-off for the Five Stripes, who were marred in an eight-game winless run at one point, with players seemingly not getting along with their former boss Gabriel Heinze and a lack of cohesive play to boot.
Gonzalo Pineda has not only come in and changed the mindset and the mood in that locker room, but since he arrived, this team have found their consistency, losing only three of their final 16 regular season affairs to finish as the number five seed.
Even though it was against the worst team in MLS (FC Cincinnati), Pineda and his side will draw off what they were able to do in their regular-season finale, coming back to win on the road, only the second time in which the Five Stripes had ever come from behind to win a road fixture.
Atlanta did not perform to their capabilities for an extended portion of the year, but make no mistake, this is a dangerous side with many weapons that can change a game.
They will also make you pay for your giveaways, possessing Luiz Araujo, a tricky and creative attacking midfielder, not to mention a promising youngster in Ezequiel Barco and a former Golden Boot winner, Josef Martinez.
Their speed and quality in transition has been exceptional since Pineda became the head coach, but defensively they can get burned if isolated in one v one situations.
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Team News
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Valentin Castellanos won the 2021 MLS Golden Boot, scoring 19 times this year for New York, and as a result, he is on the shortlist for the Landon Donovan MLS Most Valuable Player Award alongside Carles Gil, Hany Mukhtar, Joao Paulo and Daniel Salloi.
Gedion Zelalem was sent off after only 23 minutes in their final regular-season encounter versus Philly, Anton Tinnerholm is out with an Achilles injury, Keaton Parks is gone for the year after suffering a leg blood clot, while Nicolas Acevedo, Ismael Tajouri-Shradi and Gudmundur Thorarinsson are all questionable with lower-body injuries.
Goalkeeper Sean Johnson was terrific down the stretch for his team, conceding a goal or fewer in his final seven matches heading into the playoffs, while Maxi Moralez has picked up an assist in back-to-back games.
Marcelino Moreno was third in the MLS regular season in terms of duels won, winning 239 of the 441 which he contested, and he scored nine goals, second only to Josef Martinez, who had 12 to lead the Five Stripes.
Ezequiel Barco assisted on their equalising goal versus the Orange-and-Blue, his sixth of the campaign to lead his team in that department, while Brad Guzan has not conceded multiple goals in his last nine matches and Miles Robinson is one of the candidates for Defender of the Year.
Emerson Hyndman has a torn ACL and is not expected to play, while Santiago Sosa is questionable with a lower-body injury.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Sands, Chanot, Callens, Amundsen; Morales, Thorarinsson; Medina, Moralez, Andrade; Castellenos
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Walkes, Franco, Robinson; Bello, Ibarra, Rossetto, Lennon; Barco, Martinez, Araujo
We say: New York City FC 2-1 Atlanta United
Both New York and Atlanta are attack-minded sides who like to push forward, and they each have a world-class striker in fine form, but you might be surprised to know that these were two of the top defensive units in the league in 2021 in terms of goals conceded as the Boys in Blue only gave up 36 with the Five Stripes conceding 37.
The difference could be who is sharper on the defensive side, and that is where the Pigeons have a slight edge as they do not allow as much space as Atlanta does in behind their midfield line.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 62.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 16.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.96%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
