New York City FC have the opportunity to leapfrog DC United and climb into the playoff positions with a win against Hernan Losada's side, who travel to the Red Bull Arena on Sunday.
As the table stands, DC United are just above New York City in the Eastern Conference, but the two teams are both on 41 points with four games to play of the regular season.
Match preview
© Reuters
New York City do not enter this match in great form, having not won an MLS match in their last six attempts, but Ronny Deila's team did avoid back-to-back defeats for the second time in five games by drawing 1-1 with Atlanta United on Thursday.
The Pigeons ensured that they did not lose ground on DC United this week, after Marcelino Moreno's first-half strike looked to have sent New York to defeat in Atlanta, but Gudmundur Thorarinsson earned a point for his side with a goal in the 90th minute of that game.
Prior to Thursday's outing, New York City had not found the back of the net in their previous four matches, but the side have actually scored more goals than four of the top seven in the Eastern Conference.
Three points on Sunday would be a major boost for Deila's team heading into the final three games of the regular campaign, but they will need to follow that up with consecutive victories, as rivals New York Red Bulls are expected to pile on the pressure with a game in hand on all of the top eight.
© Reuters
DC United have allowed New York City to catch them up in the table after three games without a win, and in that time Losada's side have registered two defeats, most recently losing to Eastern Conference champions New England Revolution.
Nigel Robertha had given DC United the lead in that game, but the visitors turned the game around to lead 3-1, and Ramon Abila's 93rd minute strike ended up as just a consolation goal for the home team.
Considering the strong run of form that New England are currently on, perhaps defeat against the leaders was not a shock, but the Black and Red will need to pick up three points on Sunday, in what is labelled as a must-win fixture for both of the teams.
Losada may not be confident taking his side to New York, as they have only won twice on the road this season, conceding 30 goals in 15 away matches also, while Deila's team are much stronger at home having collected over 65% of their points at the Red Bull Arena.
This fixture was the opening match for these two teams in April, when DC United came out on top as 2-1 winners, but New York City got their revenge at the end of June with a 2-1 win for themselves.
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
The only injury absentee for the home side is right-sided defender Anton Tinnerholm, who suffered an Achilles' tendon injury earlier this month. Youngster Tayvon Gray has filled in at full-back for the Pigeons.
Maxime Chanot is expected to return to the back four for the home side, which will allow James Sands to operate slightly higher up the pitch in midfield, alongside Keaton Parks in the middle of the field.
Valentin Castellanos will lead the line for the hosts, and he is looking to get back onto the scoresheet having not found the back of the net in his last four appearances.
There are more injury concerns facing Losada with Brendan Hines-Ike, Edison Flores, Yordy Reyna and Paul Arriola all sidelined in the physio room, until next month.
Joseph Mora started in place of Kevin Paredes last time out, but the latter is expected to return to the starting lineup fresh from only playing just over 20 minutes on Thursday.
After conceding three against New England, goalkeeper Bill Hamid will want a clean sheet on Sunday, and he will be protected by a back three consisting of Andy Najar, Steven Birnbaum and Donovan Pines.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Chanot, Gray; Parks, Sands; Thiago, Moralez, Medina; Castellanos
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Najar, Birnbaum, Pines; Paredes, Moreno, Canouse, Gressel; Robertha, Skundrich; Kamara
We say: New York City FC 1-1 DC United
Both of the previous meetings between these two sides this season have ended as 2-1 victories for the home team, but with a lot to lose for DC United, they are expected to not allow New York City to leapfrog them in the table.
Neither side are in great form heading into this fixture, which suggests that they could cancel each other out in a cagey affair as neither team can afford to lose this fixture.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 67.99%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for DC United had a probability of 13.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a DC United win it was 1-2 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
