Aiming to confirm a first-placed finish in their World Cup 2022 Qualifying group, New Zealand will take on New Caledonia in Qatar on Thursday.
The All Whites won their first two games, meaning they simply need a point from the last match to finish top ahead of the final round of continental qualifying.
Match preview
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New Zealand headed into this World Cup Qualifying group as heavy favourites, and they made a winning start, defeating Papua New Guinea 1-0 thanks to Ben Waine's 75th-minute goal.
They then met Fiji on Monday, and Danny Hay's side strengthened their position in the group with a dominant 4-0 victory in Qatar.
Chris Wood put them ahead at the end of the first half, and he would again get on the scoresheet alongside Elijah Just after the hour mark before Clayton Lewis capped off a strong showing by converting an injury-time penalty.
That has left them at the top of the group heading into the final game, and they will look to end with a perfect record to ensure they progress to the final round in first place.
Such a finish will see the All White's given a favourable draw in the final stage against group A's runners-up, with their sights set on reaching a first World Cup since 2010.
They take on a New Caledonia side whose chances of progression have already disappeared after a losing start.
Coming in as underdogs, Les Cagous firstly met Fiji, and, despite Jordan Wetria levelling the game at 1-1 in the 78th minute, they were eventually beaten as Sairusi Nalaubu netted his second of the game in the dying embers.
Dominique Wacalie's men then took on Papua New Guinea last time out, and they were again handed a narrow defeat as Tommy Semmy hit the only goal of the game inside the first 10 minutes.
Now sitting three points behind second place with either of the two sides above guaranteed to get at least a point in the final round of fixtures, New Caledonia will not be able to progress to the final round of qualifying, but they will still aim for what would be a historic result against one of the continent's strongest outfits.
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Team News
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New Zealand boast a squad filled with quality and experience, and Winston Reid will continue to lead from the heart of the defence.
Chris Wood is their star in attack, with the Newcastle United forward moving further clear as the nation's all-time top scorer thanks to his brace last time out.
He may again be joined by Ben Waine, who earned his first caps in this round of fixtures and netted a debut goal against Papua New Guinea, having already made 55 appearances and scored 10 goals for Wellington Phoenix at the age of 20.
New Caledonia will be without defender Jean-Luc Decoire, who is suspended after he was sent off in the dying minutes of their defeat to Papua New Guinea.
Joel Wakanumune and captain Emile Bearune offer experience at the back, having made 41 and 39 appearances for the national team respectively.
At the other end of the pitch, Bertrand Kai will likely lead the line from the outset, with the 38-year-old being the most capped player and top scorer in his nation's history with 23 goals from 42 games.
New Zealand possible starting lineup:
Sail; Kirwan, Smith, Reid, Pijnaker; Barbarouses, Stamenic, Lewis, De Vries; Waine, Wood
New Caledonia possible starting lineup:
Ulile; Wadriako, Wakanumune, Bearune, Athale, Kauma; Kenon, Sansot, Wetria; Kai, Fenepej
We say: New Zealand 4-0 New Caledonia
New Caledonia have shown resilience to come close in their first two games, but Thursday presents a far bigger challenge, and we see them being outclassed.
Hay's men have far more quality than their opponents and should have enough to finish with a resounding victory
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 53.09%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 24.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
