Euro 2020

[monks data]

Euro Champ Qualifying | Playoff Semi-Finals Route C

Oct 8, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Ullevaal Stadion

Norway
1 - 2
Serbia

Normann (88')
Normann (47')

FT
(aet)

Milinkovic-Savic (81', 102')
Ristic (60'), Milivojevic (90+4'), Tadic (118')

Preview: Norway vs. Serbia - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter

Published: October 6 2020 | 12:31

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:42

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro qualifying Path C playoff semi-final between Norway and Serbia, including team news and predicted lineups.

Thursday evening sees Norway take on Serbia in Path C's playoff semi-final as both sides aspire to earn qualification for next summer's European Championships.

The two countries will be vying for a spot in next month's playoff final against either Scotland or Israel, with the overall winner entering Group D in the tournament.

Match preview

Norway pair Erling Braut Haaland and Alexander Sorloth celebrate against Northern Ireland on September 7, 2020 © Reuters

Having failed to qualify for the European Championships since their inaugural tournament in 2000, the Norway faithful will no doubt feel confident about their team's chances of reaching a first finals for 20 years.

Lars Lagerback's men only lost one of their 10 matches in qualifying Group F - a 2-1 defeat to Spain in the opening round of fixtures - going their next nine games unbeaten to finish third in the group, four points adrift of second-placed Sweden.

Failure to convert draws into wins ultimately proved the difference as Norway witnessed their Scandinavian neighbours qualify for next summer's tournament automatically, but owing to their 2018-19 Nations League performance, Norway can still join up with the European elite via the playoff route.

In their most recent outing, Norway thrashed Northern Ireland 5-1 in September's Nations League fixtures, and Lagerback's men will be facing off against the Green and White Army once again following their clash with Serbia, with Romania also waiting to take on Norway this weekend.

Similarly, Serbia are also looking to end a 20-year absence from the European Championships, having last reached the quarter-finals of the 2000 edition where - as FR Yugoslavia - they were knocked out by the Netherlands.

Serbia's final four group matches saw them pick up two successive victories over Luxembourg either side of a win over Lithuania, with Ljubisa Tumbakovic's men rounding off their campaign with a 2-2 stalemate against Ukraine.

Serbia ultimately finished three points worse off than second-placed Portugal having scored 17 and conceded 17 goals from their eight group matches, and since then, Tumbakovic's side have begun their 2020-21 Nations League campaign with a loss to Russia and a draw with Turkey.

Should either Norway or Serbia end up victorious in Path C, they can look forward to occupying a group with England, Croatia and the Czech Republic next summer.

Thursday's clash represents just the second ever meeting between Norway and Serbia, with the inaugural clash ending in a 1-1 draw in a 2006 friendly.

Norway Euro Champ Qualifying form: WDDDWW
Norway form (all competitions): DDWWLW

Serbia Euro Champ Qualifying form: WLWWWD
Serbia form (all competitions): WWWDLD

Team News

Bournemouth striker Joshua King pictured in December 2019 © Reuters

Bournemouth striker Joshua King only just made his return for the Cherries against Norwich City and was not in the squad to face Coventry City, but the 28-year-old has made the cut for Norway.

However, King would do well to displace Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth up top - both of whom bagged two goals apiece in Norway's crushing victory over Northern Ireland last month.

Orjan Nyland, who recently terminated his contract at Aston Villa by mutual consent, will not be involved due to injury, with uncapped goalkeeper Sondre Rossbach taking the 30-year-old's place.

As for Serbia, Nemanja Matic called time on his international career in August, while Eintracht Frankfurt's Filip Kostic has been included in the squad despite suffering a leg injury against Hertha Berlin.

The bulk of the side that started September's draw with Turkey will likely keep their places here, with Aleksandar Mitrovic - three goals off Stjepan Bobek's record of 38 for the Serbian national team - leading the line.

Norway possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Elabdellaoui, Ajer, Reginiussen, Aleesami; Henriksen, Johansen; Odegaard, Elyounoussi; Sorloth, Haaland

Serbia possible starting lineup:
Dmitrovic; Maksimovic, Milenkovic, Kolarov; Lazovic, Milinkovic-Savic, Gudelj, Djuricic; Tadic, Ljajic; Mitrovic

SM words green background

We say: Norway 1-2 Serbia

Both sides gave good accounts of themselves during the group stages and would be equally worthy of qualifying for the final tournament. This should be an entertaining and closely-fought affair, and Thursday's game could go either way, but we are backing Serbia to come out on top and advance to the final.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.92%) and 2-0 (5.01%). The likeliest Serbia win was 1-2 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.03%).