However, on the back of their thumping win over Northern Ireland, the home side know that victory on Sunday evening will guarantee them a place in the first two spots at the halfway stage.

Match preview

Ianis Hagi in action for Romania against Malta during a Euro 2020 qualifier in June 2019 © Reuters

With Erling Braut Haaland now being used in the senior squad, Norway are expected to step things up a notch in their bid to close the gap on Sweden and Denmark.

However, Lars Lagerback has witnessed his team falter twice on home territory, the second time costing them a place at Euro 2020 next summer.

Norway were on course for victory against Serbia before Sergej Milinkovic-Savic's equaliser eight minutes from time, and the midfielder struck again during the extra period to end their hopes of another appearance at a major competition for the foreseeable future.

On a positive note, Norway still have plenty to play for in this tournament, sitting just one point adrift of their next opponents courtesy of their 5-1 success over Northern Ireland.

Prevailing in that manner was required after the disappointment of succumbing to Austria on matchday one, and the pressure is now on to match their away form with results in Oslo.

While Romania head into this contest sitting top of the group, Mirel Radoi must lift his players after their defeat to Iceland in the Euro 2020 playoffs.

Radoi would have been confident of extending his team's unbeaten record in 2020 to three matches, but Tricolorii were second best in the first of their double-header in Scandinavia.

How Romania handle that setback remains to be seen, although Radoi will point to last month's triumph in Austria as proof that they are capable of raising their game when necessary.

Despite Ianis Hagi establishing himself as the team's star man, the Rangers playmaker is still awaiting his first goal in the senior side after 12 appearances.

Norway Nations League form: LW
Norway form (all competitions): DWWLWL

Romania Nations League form: DW
Romania form (all competitions): DLLDWL

Team News

Norway pair Erling Braut Haaland and Alexander Sorloth celebrate against Northern Ireland on September 7, 2020 © Reuters

Having witnessed his side play 120 minutes on Thursday evening, Lagerback must decide whether to hand a rest to several players.

Providing that he does not replace one of Haaland or Alexander Sorloth in attack, Josh King could come in for Stefan Johansen in midfield.

Sander Berge may also drop out of the starting lineup, potentially allowing for Mathias Normann to be named in the first XI.

Hagi will almost certainly be recalled to the Romania team after surprisingly beginning the Iceland game among the replacements.

Reading forward George Puscas is also in line to return, while Alexandru Cretu could drop out of the side to accommodate the selection of Alexandru Cicaldau.

Norway possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Linnes, Strandberg, Ajer, Aleesami; Odegaard, Normann, Henriksen, King; Haaland, Sorloth

Romania possible starting lineup:
Tatarusanu; Hanca, Balasa, Tosca, Bancu; Stanciu, Cacaldau, Maxim; Deac, Puscas, Hagi

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We say: Norway 4-1 Romania

Despite their lack of consistency since the resumption of international football, we can only back Norway to prevail in this contest. Although Romania have produced the better form in this competition, do not be surprised if the home side run riot in their capital city.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Romania had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Romania win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Norway would win this match.