Nottingham Forest play host to Queens Park Rangers on Wednesday evening knowing that they can move to within one point of their fourth-placed opponents in the Championship standings.
However, with Forest down in ninth position, QPR are aware that victory at the City Ground will leave their hosts as clear outsiders to end the season in the playoffs.
Match preview
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Having suffered just one defeat in 10 Championship fixtures during 2022, Forest can count themselves unlucky to be sitting down in ninth, but their current standing should only provide Steve Cooper's side with more motivation.
Although three of their last five matches have ended in draws, they salvaged the situation with last-gasp equalisers in two of those outings, potential difference-makers come the end of the campaign.
Nevertheless, Cooper was aware that Forest desperately needed a clinical performance against Reading at the weekend, and it was delivered with a ruthlessness which they could do with showing on a regular basis.
Keinan Davis scored after just 17 seconds, setting the ball rolling for a 4-0 success, and the Aston Villa loanee has now netted four times in 10 Championship games since his January arrival.
Just as important, Forest kept their fourth clean sheet in six league games, while they are also now unbeaten in their last eight home fixtures in all competitions.
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QPR have recently looked a shadow of the team which has spent the majority of the campaign in the top six, leading to concerns that another defeat at rivals Luton Town would further dent their confidence.
Trailing by a goal at half time, it appeared that Mark Warburton's team would extend their current league run to two wins in 10 matches, particularly having already lost their last three fixtures on the road.
However, a penalty from Andre Gray and a late goal from defender Rob Dickie secured a fine comeback victory, moving the Hoops back above their opponents on Sunday.
With nine points separating fourth and 14th position, QPR need a winning streak over results every so often, but they have at least eased the pressure as they bid to earn back-to-back triumphs for the first time since the middle of January.
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Team News
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Cooper will likely have to make at least two changes to his Forest XI after Steve Cook and Max Lowe suffered ankle and groin injuries against Reading.
The reshuffle is expected to lead to Ryan Yates dropping into the back three, Jack Colback switching to left wing-back and James Garner featuring a deeper role in midfield.
Cooper will hope that Philip Zinckernagel has recovered from illness to take his place behind a front two of Brennan Johnson and Davis.
While Dion Sanderson is available again after suspension, Warburton is unlikely to tinker with his QPR defence for this contest.
Chris Willock is in contention to replace either Stefan Johansen or Ilias Chair after providing an assist as a substitute versus Luton.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Horvath; Worrall, Yates, McKenna; Spence, Cafu, Garner, Colback; Zinckernagel; Johnson, Davis
Queens Park Rangers possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Dickie, Dunne, Barbet; Odubajo, Hendrick, Field, Wallace; Johansen, Willock; Gray
We say: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Queens Park Rangers
On the back of their excellent win at Luton, QPR head into this game with plenty of confidence. Nevertheless, we cannot ignore Forest's general dominance at the City Ground, leading to a prediction of a narrow victory for the East Midlands giants.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 48.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Queens Park Rangers had a probability of 24.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Queens Park Rangers win it was 0-1 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest would win this match.
