Promotion-chasing Nottingham Forest play host to Bristol City on Saturday afternoon needing to respond to posting two successive draws in the Championship.
While Forest now sit five points adrift of the playoff places, Bristol City are down in 16th position after their inconsistent form continued in midweek.
Match preview
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On the back of thrashing Leicester City in the FA Cup, Forest supporters would have hoped to continue that form in their following league fixtures.
However, while a return of five points from games with Blackburn Rovers, Stoke City and Preston North End is respectable, there is a feeling that some momentum has been lost.
Although there is still a long way to go in the promotion race, Forest can only be regarded as outsiders now that they are down in 10th position, five points adrift of Sheffield United.
Head coach Steve Cooper may relish that scenario with expectation levels having recently increased, but Forest face three of the top six in their next three games.
On a more positive note, the East Midlands outfit have collected 13 points from their last six home outings, a return only bettered by three other teams over the same period.
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Bristol City head into this contest having won 11 of their 34 Championship fixtures this season, their record dominated by 16 defeats.
Nevertheless, after every single victory, Nigel Pearson has witnessed his side fail to post a second in succession, the latest extension of that trend coming against Coventry City on Tuesday night.
Having netted a second-half equaliser through Chris Martin, the Robins would have expected to kick on, but it was the Sky Blues who claimed all three points during the closing stages.
Sitting 19 points clear of the relegation zone, relegation is not a realistic possibility, although that will not stop Pearson from fearing for his job at Ashton Gate.
Remarkably, in their last 13 Championship fixtures, Bristol City have both scored and failed to keep a clean sheet, a record stretching all the way back to December 4.
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Team News
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With first-choice goalkeeper Brice Samba continuing to serve a three-match ban, Ethan Horvath will continue to deputise between the sticks for Forest.
Having failed to score against Preston in midweek, changes to the attack could be made with Philip Zinckernagel and Sam Surridge both pushing for opportunities.
Pearson will likely revert back to a defensive three for this contest with Joe Williams returning to the Bristol City starting lineup.
Sam Bell will hope to keep his place at right wing-back, with Ayman Benarous most likely to drop out of the team.
George Tanner, Matty James and Andy King are all still unavailable due to injury.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Horvath; Worrall, Cook, McKenna; Spence, Yates, Colback, Lowe; Zinckernagel; Johnson, Surridge
Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Bentley; Kalas, Williams, Klose; Bell, Massengo, Scott, Dasilva; Weimann; Martin, Semenyo
We say: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Bristol City
With little wrong with Bristol City's attacking form, this should prove to be a competitive affair. Nevertheless, with more at stake, Forest need to raise their game, and the end result could be a narrow victory courtesy of a late winner.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 59.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Bristol City had a probability of 18.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Bristol City win it was 0-1 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest would win this match.
