Greek champions Olympiacos get their quest for a spot in the Champions League group stage underway on Wednesday night, as they welcome Azeri outsiders Neftchi Baku to the Karaiskakis Stadium.
Having strolled to their domestic league title last term, the Athens outfit now enter at the second qualifying round, where they meet a club that has never before made it to the promised land.
Match preview
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After the elation of sealing back-to-back Super League titles in May, several hundred Olympiacos fans forced their way into the grounds of the ancient Acropolis to celebrate a 46th Greek championship triumph.
While they cavorted among the site's 2,500-year-old marble temples, head coach Pedro Martins was already turning his mind to converting domestic dominance into tangible European progress in the 2021-22 campaign.
What Olympiacos hope will be the first step along that journey comes around this week, as the side that ultimately finished a remarkable 26 points clear of closest rivals PAOK last season take on Azerbaijan's Neftchi for the right to face either Mura or Ludogorets in the next round.
Based in the Greek capital's port of Piraeus, the Erythrolefki have been a regular fixture in the autumn group stages during recent years, but rarely progress much further. Martins - a former regular on the Portuguese Primeira Liga circuit, with clubs including Rio Ave and Maritimo - is therefore aware that qualification is considered a must.
So far, since their return from the summer break, Olympiacos have warmed up with a series of friendlies against diverse opposition, beating Krasnodar and CSKA Sofia but losing to Austrian sides RB Salzburg and Wolfsberger.
Curiously, a planned practice fixture last Tuesday was called off in acrimonious circumstances, when Galatasaray officials apparently refused to comply with Greek health protocols; refusing to follow a strict COVID-19 testing regime. The Turkish giants swiftly headed for home and an ill-tempered diplomatic row between the two nations soon ensued.
Nonetheless, the team that went out in the last 16 of the Europa League to Arsenal last season are expected to be prepared for the challenge of a club with minimal European pedigree.
Though, in 2012, Neftchi became the first Azeri team to advance to the group stage of any UEFA competition - picking up three points in six Europa League matches by drawing with Partizan Belgrade and memorably holding Inter Milan at San Siro - the Baku-based outfit have rarely come close since.
Earlier this month, they doubled a 2-1 advantage from the first leg of their first round qualifying tie with Dinamo Tbilisi at their Bakcell Arena headquarters by repeating the dose in Georgia to win 4-2 on aggregate.
The Azerbaijan Premier League winners - who claimed their first top-flight title win since 2013 last season - had previously posted a friendly victory over Russian giants Spartak Moscow, so are in fine form before heading to the capital of ancient culture this week.
Head coach Samir Abbasov has seen his side claim eight wins from their last 11 games in all, with both Namik Alaskarov and captain Emin Mahmudov - once of Spartak and Boavista - notching in each leg of their opening-round success. Abbasov will hope the pair can continue that streak, then, as Neftchi seek to upset the odds by taking a positive result back to Baku.
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Team News
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Pedro Martins could hand a debut to Czech Republic goalkeeper Tomas Vaclik, who signed a two-year deal with Olympiacos last week. The former Sevilla stopper replaces Premier League-bound Portuguese gloveman Jose Sa, who has joined Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Though he impressed at the Euro 2020 finals, Vaclik has a tough act to follow, as Sa helped the Erythrolefki clinch two successive Greek Super League titles while at the club; keeping 62 clean sheets in 124 appearances.
Martins will also be without Tiquinho Soares - who has an arm injury - and Konstantinos Fortounis, who is not expected to return from a cruciate ligament rupture until the autumn, while centre-back Ousseynou Ba is suspended. However, the home side have brought in Pierre Kunde from Mainz and he is a contender to start in central midfield, alongside skipper Andreas Bouchalakis and former Inter man Yann M'Vila.
For the visitors, meanwhile, Paraguayan forward Cesar Meza Colli will hope to keep his place in the front two ahead of fellow new arrival Khayal Nacafov, with the pair competing to partner Namik Alaskarov.
Neftchi coach Samir Abbasov prefers a 3-5-2 setup, and is likely to retain that system on Wednesday, with Omar Buludov perhaps favoured over winger Harramiz to provide more defensive cover on the right.
Olympiacos possible starting lineup:
Vaclik; Lala, Papastathopoulos, Markovic, Reabciuk; Bouchalakis, M'Vila; Valbuena, Camara, Randelovic; El Arabi
Neftchi Baku possible starting lineup:
Mammadov; Stankovic, Mbodj, Celik; Buludov, Kane, Mahmudov, Bougrine, Lawal; Colli, Alaskarov
We say: Olympiacos 2-1 Neftchi Baku
Olympiacos are unlikely to have things all their own way across the course of this two-legged tie, but the gulf in individual quality between these teams is sure to tell at some stage.
The visitors have built strong momentum, so can catch the Greek side out at least once, but are set to be unpicked by a number of tried and tested performers at this level.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 20.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 1-0 (8.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Neftchi Baku win it was 1-2 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Olympiacos would win this match.
