In a rematch from the most recent Asian Cup, Oman and Saudi Arabia will square off in the semi-finals of the Arabian Gulf Cup on Tuesday at Jaber al-Ahmad International Stadium in Kuwait City.
Al-Ahmar topped Group A above the hosts after earning a 1-1 draw versus the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the Saudis finished second in Group B, defeating Iraq 3-1 on matchday three.
Match preview
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Oman got through the opening phase of this tournament the hard way, conceding first in each of their group fixtures but going undefeated nonetheless.
That has put them in a position to return to the final of this competition for a second successive occasion and the sixth time in their history.
Heading into this elimination game, Rashid Jaber's men are undefeated in their previous four matches across all competitions, losing just one of their last five international encounters (1-0 to Iraq in November).
Their victory over Qatar on matchday two was the first time in 2024 that they had conceded the opening goal and managed to win.
In five of their previous six Gulf Cup semi-finals, Oman have emerged victorious, with their only defeat over that stretch coming in 2014 against Qatar (3-1).
Oman won the previous Gulf Cup fixture against the Saudis in the last edition of this tournament, scoring six minutes from the end to collect a 2-1 triumph.
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Some clinical finishing over their last two games has Saudi Arabia in the semi-finals of this competition for the first time since 2019.
In their three Gulf Cup group contests this year, they found the back of the net eight times, the most of any side at the tournament thus far.
So far this month, they have scored 11 goals in just four international encounters after going four consecutive games without netting before that.
Herve Renard has won three of his last four matches in charge since returning to the national team, and on Tuesday, the Frenchman can guide them to the final of this tournament for the first time since 2019.
Meanwhile, a victory would also equal their longest winning run of the year after they claimed three successive triumphs in January.
The Green Falcons have won their last four semi-final contests in this competition while losing just one of their previous eight appearances at this stage (1-0 versus the United Arab Emirates in 2007).
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Team News
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Four Oman players selected to the Gulf Cup squad are still seeking their first appearances with the national team, including Faraj Al-Kiyumi, Ahed Al-Mashaiki, Mulham Al-Sinaidi and Ibrahim Al-Rajhi.
Abdulrahman Al-Mushaifri levelled their match with the UAE on Friday, 11 minutes from the end, his seventh all-time for Al-Ahmar.
On matchday three Saad Al-Mousa collected his first senior cap for Saudi Arabia, replacing Musab Al-Juwayr for the final few minutes, while Abdulaziz Al-Othman, Abdulmalik Al-Oyayari and Ayman Fallatah are all looking to make their first appearances with the national team.
Salem Al-Dawsari put them in front on Saturday, though it was a late brace by substitute Abdullah Al-Hamdan in the final nine minutes, which enabled them to collect all three points.
Oman possible starting lineup:
Al-Mukhaini; Al-Harthi, Al-Khamisi, Al-Musalaimi, Al-Busaidi; Al-Yahmadi, Al-Saadi, Al-Alawi, Fawaz; Al-Sabhi, Al-Mushaifri
Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:
Al-Owais; Al-Ghannam, Al-Tambakti, Al-Bulaihi, Boushal; Al-Malki; Al-Juwayr, Kanno, N. Al-Dawsari, S. Al-Dawsari; Radif
We say: Oman 1-2 Saudi Arabia
Oman have plenty of experience to draw upon in these big games, but the Saudis are firing on all cylinders at the moment and could be a handful on Tuesday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for Oman had a probability of 27.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest Oman win was 1-0 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
