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FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer | Gameweek 39
Oct 17, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Nippert Stadium
Orlando City

Cincinnati
0 - 1
Orlando City


Bailey (80'), Cameron (86')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Urso (13')
Carlos (66'), Perea (74')

Preview: FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between FC Cincinnati and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Orlando City recently ended a run of four straight defeats, and are favourites to register back-to-back wins for the first time since June when they travel to face the Eastern Conference's bottom side, FC Cincinnati, on Sunday.

The home team have only won once in their last 19 games, and new manager Tyrone Marshall has seemingly not had the positive impact, in terms of results, he would have wished for since arriving at the club at the end of September.


Match preview

FC Cincinnati midfielder Luciano Acosta celebrates with teammates scoring a goal on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Cincinnati's last two games have come against two of the Eastern Conference's top three teams, and the 14th-placed side only missed out on a draw by one goal in each of those outings.

Last time out, Marshall's team dominated possession of the ball against Philadelphia Union, but the hosts were not as efficient in front of goal and only managed to net one of their six shots on target, while Union scored twice earlier in the game.

Hope of avoiding a bottom-placed finish is fading away for Cincinnati, who are now five points behind Toronto in 13th with six games to play, and collecting any points on Sunday will be a tough task for the home side, given Orlando's better league position.

Cincinnati have only won once at the TQL Stadium this season, but they have conceded 22 more goals away from home, suggesting that Orlando are not going to run riot in Ohio this weekend.

Orlando City SC midfielder Nani (17) reacts after scoring a goal against FC Cincinnati in the second half at TQL Stadium on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Orlando have far from clinched a playoff spot with six games still to play as they are only three points ahead of Atlanta United in eighth, but victory against fellow top-seven rival DC United was a massive boost for the squad.

Oscar Pareja's side went behind earlier on in that game against DC United; they quickly equalised through centre-back Robin Jansson but it was a long wait for the home side to find a winner at the Exploria Stadium.

Striker Daryl Dike was the hero on that day, scoring a 97th-minute winner to ensure Orlando leapfrogged DC United in the Eastern Conference, and that was the third consecutive match in which the 21-year-old has found the back of the net.

Orlando are favourites for Sunday's encounter against Cincinnati, and there is pressure on the team to win, considering dropping points this weekend will allow Atlanta the opportunity to draw level on points with Pareja's side.

The Lions have not actually won away from home in the MLS since the end of June, failing to collect three points in nine attempts away from Florida, but they are expected to end that run on Sunday.

Cincinnati will be looking to copy the performance and result of the last time these two teams met in August, when Orlando could only manage a 1-1 draw at the TQL Stadium, but Pareja's side did secure a 3-0 win the first time they faced Cincinnati this season.

FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Orlando City Major League Soccer form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W



Team News

Orlando City SC head coach Oscar Pareja walks off the field at the end of the game against FC Cincinnati at TQL Stadium on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Maikel van der Werff has not featured for Cincinnati this season, and he will continue to be absent on Sunday as he suffers from a hernia.

Joseph-Claude Gyau is also expected to remain sidelined this weekend, having not played since the beginning of August when he picked up a heel injury, but the 29-year-old could return to action later this month.

Both Yuya Kubo and Gustavo Vallecilla were forced off after just 31 minutes last time out, but they are not certain to miss this weekend's clash having had a week to recover from their injuries.

Orlando's Alexandre Pato and Oriol Rosell are the only absentees for the visitors on Sunday, as Joseph Dezart was fit enough to be named as a substitute last time out after exiting the field due to injury against Philadelphia Union in September.

Dike is sure to be one of the biggest attacking threats for Orlando, and he will be keen to extend his scoring run as he attempts to catch Orlando's top goalscorer Nani by the end of this season.

FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Castillo, Blackett, Vallecilla, Bailey; Stanko, Medunjanin; Barreal, Acosta, Kubo; Silva

Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Moutinho, Jansson, Carlos, Ruan; Mendez, Urso; Nani, Pereira, Michel; Dike


SM words green background

We say: FC Cincinnati 0-1 Orlando City

Despite Orlando's superior league position and Cincinnati's poor form, it is not expected to be a straightforward task for the visitors, given their not so great away record.

However, with a playoff place not yet secured, Pareja will be keen for his side to ensure their finish in the top seven as soon as possible and three points on Sunday is vital for that to happen.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Orlando City in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Cincinnati vs Orlando City

FC Cincinnati
17.4%
Draw
34.8%
Orlando City
47.8%
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami16104238211734
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati1510322314933
3New York City FCNY City158251916326
4Columbus Crew146622113824
5New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls146532521423
6Charlotte FCCharlotte FC156451413122
7Toronto157172424022
8Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia144642521418
9DC United154652125-418
10Nashville SCNashville143741720-316
11Orlando City144461522-716
12Atlanta UnitedAtlanta143471717013
13CF MontrealMontreal143471731-1413
14Chicago Fire152581427-1311
15New England RevolutionNew England132110926-177

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Salt LakeSalt Lake1585230171329
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd137422417725
3Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy156722722525
4Los Angeles FCLos Angeles147342519624
5Austin FCAustin156542018223
6Colorado RapidsColorado156452726122
7Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver145452017319
8Houston DynamoHouston145361315-218
9Seattle SoundersSeattle154561818017
10Portland TimbersPortland154472830-216
11St Louis City143742022-216
12Dallas133461620-413
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas142572226-411
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes1532102334-1111


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