Mid-table Osasuna play host to already-relegated Mallorca in the final round of La Liga fixtures at the El Sadar Stadium this Sunday.
Osasuna ended Barcelona's title hopes in midweek with a 2-1 victory over the Catalan giants, whereas Mallorca's relegation was confirmed following a 2-1 loss to Granada.
Match preview
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Having just about scraped past relegation-threatened Celta Vigo last weekend, Osasuna fans would not have been expecting miracles from their side when they travelled to Camp Nou just a few days later.
However, the memories of Thursday evening will live long in the minds of Jagoba Arrasate's players as a late Roberto Torres strike saw Osasuna walk away with all three points in Barcelona's own territory.
Last season's Segunda Division champions have been in terrific form since the restart and have comfortably secured their top-flight survival for the 2019-20 campaign, and a top-half finish could still be on the cards for Arrasate's side.
Osasuna's 11th-placed standing is the lowest that they can end up this season, and should other results go their way on Sunday, Osasuna could finish as high as ninth.
Arrasate's men will now be aiming to extend their three-game unbeaten run on home soil, and the confidence of Osasuna's players should be sky high following their historic midweek victory in Catalonia.
In contrast, Mallorca's relegation to the second tier was confirmed on Thursday as Los Bermellones suffered a 2-1 defeat to Granada on home turf.
Celta Vigo now have an unassailable four-point lead over Mallorca heading into the final day of the season, and Vicente Moreno must now make preparations for an immediate return to the Segunda.
Mallorca have lost seven out of 10 matches since La Liga was given the green light to resume, and Moreno's side never looked likely to mount a late charge for safety following the restart.
If recent results are anything to go by, the chances of Mallorca ending their underwhelming season on a high note are minimal, as Los Bermellones have lost their last five away matches and have only notched up one goal in that time.
Osasuna La Liga form: WWDLWW
Mallorca La Liga form: LWLWLL
Team News
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Osasuna's Enric Gallego picked up a red card just six minutes after being brought on against Barcelona and will not be available for the final day of the season.
Marc Cardona and Ezequiel Avila are both sidelined for the hosts, while Unai Garcia, Ruben Garcia and Robert Ibanez are not expected to feature either.
Arrasate opted for a five-at-the-back formation to keep Barca at bay in midweek, but the Osasuna manager may revert back to a traditional 4-4-2 system for the visit of Mallorca, with Torres likely to come back into the fold following his winner at Camp Nou.
Frustrations boiled over for Mallorca as Aleksander Sedlar and Juan Hernandez both saw red in the defeat to Granada, but Fran Gamez returns from a suspension of his own.
Moreno could look to shuffle the pack with Mallorca's relegation already confirmed, and 15-year-old attacker Luka Romero will be hopeful of getting some minutes on the board this weekend.
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Vidal, Navas, D. Garcia, Lato; Torres, Moncayola, Brasanac, Barja; Arnaiz, Lopez
Mallorca possible starting lineup:
Reina; Pozo, Valjent, Raillo, Agbenyenu; Rodriguez, Baba, Sevilla; Kubo, Budimir, Junior
We say: Osasuna 2-0 Mallorca
Both teams will already be looking ahead to their respective 2020-21 campaigns, which could lead to some complacency creeping in on the final day. Mallorca will want to end their season strongly despite already being down and out, but Osasuna have been in fine form since the restart and we expect the home side to record a routine victory this weekend.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 56.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Mallorca had a probability of 18.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Mallorca win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
