Mexican side Pachuca get their 2024 Leagues Cup campaign underway when they journey to the Red Bull Arena to take on New York Red Bulls on Tuesday.
The Red Bulls head into the game off the back of a penalty-shootout defeat against fellow MLS side Toronto FC in Group J and will need all three points to keep their campaign alive.
Match preview
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Pachuca were sent back down to earth in the Mexican Liga MX as they suffered a 2-0 defeat against Pumas UNAM when the sides squared off at the Estadio Olimpico Universitario.
Despite being on the back foot for most of the game and seeing less than 40% of the ball possession, Pumas made their chances count as Ulises Rivers and Cesar Huerta scored in either half to hand them all three points.
Prior to that, Pachuca picked up their first league win of the season on July 17, when they edged out Atletico San Luis 2-0 at the Estadio Hidalgo courtesy of goals from Carlos Sanchez and Alan Bautista.
Guillermo Almada's men come into the new season off the back of an impressive 2023 campaign as they clinched the CONCACAF Champions Cup title and reached the quarter-finals of the Clausura playoffs.
However, Pachuca were dumped out of the Leagues Cup in the round of 32 as they suffered a penalty-shootout defeat against Houston Dynamo after a goalless draw with the MLS side on August 3.
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New York Red Bulls, on the other hand, were denied a dream start to the 2024 Leagues Cup when they were beaten on penalties by Toronto FC after a goalless draw on Saturday evening.
In a cagey affair at the Red Bull Arena, the biggest chances of the game fell to the home side but they were let down by poor finishing as the game went on to penalties where Toronto secured a 5-4 victory.
New York Red Bulls will head into Tuesday's game looking to make an immediate response and keep their hopes of reaching the knockout stages of the second consecutive year alive.
Sandro Schwarz's men picked up wins over New England Revolution, Atletico San Luis and city rivals New York City FC last season to reach the round of 16 last season before suffering a penalty-shootout loss against Philadelphia Union on August 9.
Back in MLS, New York Red Bulls have enjoyed a solid campaign and are currently on an eight-game unbeaten run, claiming two wins and six draws since a narrow 1-0 loss to New England Revolution on June 9.
The Red Bulls are well on course to secure another playoff appearance as they currently sit fourth in the Eastern Conference standings with 41 points from 25 matches, 12 points adrift of first-placed Inter Miami.
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Team News
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Despite the result against Pumas, we expect Pachuca to name a similar starting side on Tuesday, meaning that we could see a back four of Luis Rodriguez, Gustavo Cabral, Andres Micolta and Bryan Gonzalez.
New signing Borja Baston has started each of the last two matches and we expect the former Real Oviedo man to lead the attack once again, alongside Gael Alvarez and Moroccan winger Oussama Idrissi.
Bautista should retain his role in midfield, while Nelson Deossa and Pedro Pedraza, who have started Pachuca's four league matches, should form the midfield pivot once again.
As for New York Red Bulls, Schwarz will be unable to name the American duo of Roald Mitchell and Serge Ngoma, who continue their lengthy spells on the sidelines through knee injuries
Peter Stroud has been out of action since coming off with a severe ankle problem against Chicago Fire on April 14 and the midfielder will play no part in Tuesday's game.
The Red Bulls will also have to cope without the services of Sweden international Emil Forsberg, who has missed each of the last five matches through a foot injury.
Pachuca possible starting lineup:
Moreno; Rodriguez, Cabral, Micolta, Gonzalez; Pedraza, Deossa; Alvarez, Bautista, Idrissi; Baston
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Nealis, Reyes, Eile, Duncan; Harper, Donkor, Edelman, Carmona; Morgan, Manoel
We say: Pachuca 0-2 New York Red Bulls
While New York Red Bulls have been rock-solid in MLS, they will head into Tuesday's showdown needing maximum points following Saturday's loss against Toronto. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we predict that the Red Bulls will bounce back in front of their home supporters and claim a comfortable victory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 50.75%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 25.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
Joshua Ojele
