Pacos de Ferreira head into their Primeira Liga fixture with Nacional on Friday evening looking to close the gap on fourth-placed Benfica to just one point.
Meanwhile, Nacional have lost their last three games in Portugal's top flight, leaving them just three points ahead of the relegation zone.
Match preview
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With Porto and Benfica having struggled for wins of late, Pacos de Ferreira may never have a better opportunity to finish ahead of the two Portuguese giants in Primeira Liga.
However, Pepa's immediate concern is ensuring that his side do not drop out of the top five after collecting just four points from as many matches.
The latest setback, a 3-0 reverse at Santa Clara, represented a major blow to Os Castores, who now only sit three points above Vitoria de Guimaraes.
While a home meeting versus Nacional gives Pacos de Ferreira every chance of getting back on track, Pepa will have concerns with how his team have handled losing their recent six-match winning streak.
On the plus side, you have to go back to September 27 for the club's last home defeat, a period stretching stretching nine matches.
Nacional's campaign has been a tale of inconsistency with unbeaten runs and losing streaks occurring in equal measure.
As it stands, Luis Freire has witnessed his side lose successive games to Farense, Belenenses and Braga, a run which has followed eight points being collected from four matches.
Now sitting down in 12th position and just three points off bottom place, everyone associated with Alvinegros will be frustrated with their current situation.
However, they have scored in all but three of their last 13 matches, a return which will only encourage Freire ahead of the trip to Estadio da Mata Real.
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: WWDLWL
Nacional Primeira Liga form: WDWLLL
Team News
Pepa is likely to make numerous alterations to his Pacos de Ferreira side, including handing a recall to left-back Pedro Rebocho.
Joao Pedro may be considered for just his second league start of the season, while Joao Amaral is also pushing for a spot in the team.
Nacional goallkeeper Riccardo Piscitelli should keep his place between the sticks despite his poor performance against Braga.
Ruben Micael is in line for a recall in midfield, with Bryan Rochez an alternative on one of the flanks if Freire opts for fresher legs.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Marcelo, Maracas, Rebocho; Carlos, Eustaquio, Costa; Ferreira, Tanque, Santos
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Piscitelli; Kalindi, Pedrao, Correia, Vigario; Ramos, Borges, Micael; Thill, Riascos, Gorre
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 2-1 Nacional
With European qualification in their sights, Pacos de Ferreira have struggled to handle the pressure in recent weeks. However, we are backing the home side to edge their way to victory on Friday, potentially by the odd goal in three against out-of-form opponents.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 42.66%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
