The Portuguese Primeira Liga returns with a fresh set of absorbing contests as Pacos de Ferreira play host to Santa Clara at the Capital do Movel Municipal Stadium.
Having both had to grind out tough victories in their last outing, this game has all the makings of an exciting contest as just one paint and three places separate them in the league standings.
Match preview
Pacos de Ferreira finally gave their fans something to cheer for as newly-appointed manager Cesar Peixoto watched his side grab a hard-earned win over Tondela in his first game in charge two Saturdays ago.
Following a disappointing home defeat at the hands of Gil Vicente on December 10, Jorge Simao was relieved of his managerial role, leaving the club who secured an impressive fifth-place finish last season in a lowly 14th place.
In a cagey affair at the Estadio Joao Cardoso, Pacos de Ferreira appeared set to drop points once again, but Denilson made no mistake from 12 yards as he calmly converted his 81st-minute penalty to hand the visitors a rare win.
Prior to that, Pacos de Ferreira were on a dire run of 10 consecutive league outings without a win, picking up five draws and losing five since a 1-0 win over Portimonense back in August.
For a side which scored 40 league goals last season, their struggles so far have been owing to a lack of sting in attack as the Pacenses boast the league's second-poorest record with just 11 goals scored.
The win over Tondela saw Pacos de Ferreira rise to 11th place in the Primeira Liga standings, level on 14 points with Arouca and two above Tondela in the relegation playoff spot.
Like the hosts, interim manager Tiago Sousa began his rein over Santa Clara on a winning note as his side saw off a dogged Vitoria de Guimaraes side 1-0 last time out.
In a thrilling contest at the Estadio de Sao Miguel, Portuguese forward Rui Costa came up trumps for the hosts as he scored the only goal of the game five minutes before the half-time break.
Prior to that, Os Acoreanos ended their four-game winless run with a 2-1 win over Arouca on December 5 before crashing down to earth in a humbling 4-1 defeat at the hands of Maritimo a little under one week later.
After a miserable start to the season, where they managed just one win from their opening 12 games, a run of two wins from their subsequent three has seen Santa Clara rise to 13th place on the log, one point above Tondela in the relegation playoff spot.
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Team News
Portuguese defender Joao Vigario remains Pacos de Ferreira's only concern on the injury front after picking up a severe knee problem back in August.
With his winner against Tondela last time out, Denilson has now scored twice in his last three games and the 26-year-old will be tasked with leading the attack once again.
Santa Clara, on the other hand, will take to the pitch without Ruben Oliveira, who continues his long journey to full fitness after picking up a severe injury back in May.
He is joined on the club's injury table by Brazilian forward Costinha, who has been out of action since sustaining an Achilles tendon injury in August's game against Moreirense.
Iranian midfielder Mohammad Mohebi is set to sit out his sixth consecutive game through injury, while Allano misses out through a muscle problem.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Maracas, Lima, Silva; Pires, Ibrahim, Carlos; Silva, Ze Uilton, Denilson
Santa Clara possible starting lineup:
Pereira; Rodrigues, Afonso, Henrique, Mansur; Carvalho, Morita, Lincoln; Allano, Patric, Costa
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 1-1 Santa Clara
Looking at past encounters between the two sides, we can expect a thrilling contest on Thursday. While Santa Clara have been decent in recent weeks, they have struggled to get going on the road so far. Pacos de Ferreira, meanwhile, are without a win in their last eight home games and we predict both sides will settle for a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
