Pacos de Ferreira host Tondela on Friday evening, with the hosts on the hunt for a sixth consecutive league win to increase the pressure on Benfica, who sit two points ahead in fourth place in the Primeira Liga table.
Meanwhile, Tondela will be hoping to carry on their own good run of form, which has seen them rise up to ninth in the top flight.
Match preview
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Last time out, Pacos de Ferreira stretched their league winning run to five games, with a 2-1 win away at Gil Vicente.
Early goals from Joao Amaral and Luiz Carlos gave Pepa's side a two-goal lead in the first half, before Alaa Abbas scored a late goal in vain for the hosts.
That meant Os Castores moved onto nine league wins this season from 16 games, only two fewer than they managed in 34 matches last season, while they are only eight points away from matching last season's tally of 39 points.
This has put Pepa's side in a strong position in the battle for European qualification, with fifth place possibly earning a spot in the Europa League qualifying rounds, while fourth place is guaranteed a spot in qualification.
The five-match run has also seen Pacos de Ferreira pick up wins against Rio Ave, Belenenses and Maritimo, while the most impressive result was undoubtedly their 2-0 win over third-placed SC Braga.
Second-half goals from Bruno Costa and Helder Ferreira sealed an excellent victory for Pepa's side against a team in hot pursuit of the top two.
Those five matches have seen Os Castores score 11 goals, while conceding only one.
As a result, they now boast one of the best defensive records in the Primeira Liga, with only league leaders Sporting Lisbon conceding fewer than their 13 from 16 games, a significant improvement on last season, when they conceded 52 goals from 34 league matches.
However, their long winning run could be put under threat by a Tondela side with some real confidence of their own.
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In their last five league matches, Tondela have picked up three victories, taking their tally for the season to five wins.
That has seen Pako Ayestaran's side move away from the league's relegation scrap, now sitting five points clear of Gil Vicente in the automatic relegation zone.
They secured an important win last time out, beating basement side Farense 2-0, thanks to second-half goals from Joao Pedro and Rafael Barbosa.
That result saw Tondela leapfrog several sides stuck in the battle for survival, as they moved up into the top half of the division.
Despite their current position, Ayestaran's team do still have defensive issues which need to be addressed, with only two sides in the Primeira Liga conceding more than their 25 from 16 games.
That is a major worry for Tondela, especially as they come up against a Pacos de Ferreira side who have scored two or more goals in each of their last five matches in league action, and the home side will see this game as a great opportunity to continue their scoring form and add another three points onto their tally.
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: DWWWWW
Tondela Primeira Liga form: LWLWLW
Team News
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Pacos de Ferreira will be without Israeli forward Dor Jan, who remains out with an injury picked up in November.
The hosts lost full-back Oleg Reabciuk to Olympiacos at the beginning of the January transfer window, however they have not struggled in his absence, having won every game since his departure.
Pepa will be without midfielder Stephen Eustaquio, who has to serve a one-match ban after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season last time out.
Tondela added to their midfield options in January, bringing Roberto Olabe on loan from La Liga side Eibar.
The away side have also struggled with absences due to COVID-19, with goalkeeper Joel Sousa remaining out since December, while midfielders Jaume Grau and Telmo Arcanjo both returned in the last fixture following previous positive tests.
They will be without defenders Bebeto and Enzo Martinez Suarez; both picked up their fifth yellow card of the season in the win over Farense.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Baixinho, Gonzaga, Rebocho; Carlos, Diaby, Costa; Amaral, Tanque, Ferreira
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Almeida, Medioub, Tavares, Khacef; Pedro, Augusto, Grau; Murillo, Gonzalez, Agra
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 2-0 Tondela
While Tondela will come into this game with some confidence, having won three of their last five league matches, we think the hosts will extend their winning run in this encounter, coming in with huge amounts of momentum.
Pepa's side should take advantage of Tondela's poor defence and we expect them to pick up the three points from this game.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 43.6%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 26.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
