Palmeiras will try to close the gap at the top of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A when they host Cuiaba at Allianz Parque on Sunday.
Verdao are four points back of Atletico Mineiro for first place after losing to them 2-0 in their last league fixture, while Cuiaba are clinging to the final place in Serie A following their 1-0 defeat to Gremio on Wednesday.
Match preview
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It has not been a memorable month for Abel Ferreira and his side, who have struggled domestically, with their lead atop the table now evaporated, forcing them to have to play catch-up.
Last Saturday, they missed a chance to climb back into first in the Brasileiro, but it seemed like they were overwhelmed by the moment and lost their composure, taking a red card in the 35th minute.
Palestra were on the back foot from there as they were dominated in a way that we have not seen in quite some time, generating only one shot in the entire game, while collecting only 33% of the possession.
In their previous league fixture, we saw something even more unusual as Palmeiras lost a match at home to Fortaleza 3-2, despite scoring on their only two shots on target.
Earlier this week, we saw a very convincing performance by Verdao, dominating their arch-rivals Sao Paulo in the second leg of their quarter-final tie at the Copa Libertadores, conceding zero shots on target against a side who they had not beaten this year.
Before their defeat to Fortaleza, they had gone unbeaten in seven consecutive home fixtures in all competitions, picking up three clean sheets along the way.
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Making their first appearance in the top flight of Brazilian football, Cuiaba have started to string together more results as the domestic campaign has rolled along.
Former World Cup champion Jorginho has seen his side climb their way out of relegation with five points in their last three fixtures.
Earlier this week, they missed an opportunity to put more distance between themselves and the teams at the bottom of the table, losing 1-0 to Gremio in a very even match that was decided by a 25th minute penalty.
Their last 10 league fixtures were decided by a goal or fewer, notably with draws against Bragantino and a narrow defeat to league leaders Atletico Mineiro, so despite being newcomers, they have shown that they can stick with the top teams in the top flight.
They are unbeaten in their last six fixtures away from home, thanks to some sound defensive work, picking up three clean sheets and holding the second-highest scoring team in the Brasileiro, Braga, to only one shot on target.
This team may not have as much firepower or the individual talent of their opponents, but what they have had all season is camaraderie with one another and a high work rate that has them positioned to return into the Brasileiro Serie A next season.
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Team News
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Palmeiras will not have Patrick available for this contest after the young midfielder was red carded in their defeat to Galo last weekend.
We saw a very different Palestra side in their match with Sao Paulo this week compared to the team that took the field last Saturday, with Luan and Renan starting in the back four, Marcos Rocha started in midfield, while Ze Rafael, Raphael Veiga, Dudu and Rony all earned a spot in the starting 11 on Tuesday.
Weverton has collected three clean sheets in his last four starts in goal for Verdao, but he did not have to make a single save in their decisive second leg victory over Sao Paulo this week as his side advanced to the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores.
Cuiaba leading scorer Elton is without a goal since scoring the winner against Atletico Goianiense back on July 21, while Walter picked up a clean sheet in his last start away from home, a 0-0 draw versus Internacional.
Jorginho kept the same starting 11 versus Gremio that he had in their previous fixture with Camilo, Osman, Jonathan Cafu and Yesus Cabrera entering as substitutes.
Clayson, scored the winning goal in their last victory last Sunday, his first of the season, and he is just one behind Pepe and two back of Jenison for the team lead.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Gomez, Melo, Menino; Ze Rafael, Danilo; Lopes, Scarpa; Wesley, Rony
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Lucas, Marllon, Paulao, Ramon; Correia, Yuri, Auremir, Clayson; Pepe, Elton
We say: Palmeiras 3-0 Cuiaba
Palmeiras are a much better team than they have shown in the league over the past couple of games, and they will be eager to show that their recent setbacks are only temporary.
Cuiaba have been a tough defensive side this season, but they have not played in an environment quite like Allianz Parque, which can be overwhelming when you set foot on that field for the first time.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 56.98%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 19.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
