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Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 28, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Allianz Parque
Independiente del Valle

Palmeiras
5 - 0
Independiente

Rony (11', 74'), Adriano (20'), de Paula (65'), da Silva (81')
de Paula (64')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Segovia (9'), Garcia (25')

Preview: Palmeiras vs. Independiente del Valle - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Palmeiras and Independiente del Valle, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Defending champions Palmeiras continue their defence of the Copa Libertadores against Ecuadorian outfit Independiente del Valle on Tuesday.

The visitors reached the final of the competition in 2016, narrowly losing to Atletico Nacional, with both sides favourites to emerge from Group A.


Match preview

Palmeiras' Felipe Melo and teammates celebrate with the trophy after winning the Copa do Brasil on March 7, 2021© Reuters

Two-time winners Palmeiras began their title defence in impressive fashion last week, winning 3-2 at Peruvian runners-up Universitario despite being reduced to ten men with almost half an hour of normal time remaining.

The Brazilians raced into a two-goal lead via strikes from Danilo and Raphael Veiga either side of half time, but Alan Empereur's 64th-minute dismissal left his side in a sticky situation.

Enzo Gutierrez's quickfire brace levelled proceedings before Renan sunk the Peruvian side's hearts with a dramatic 95th-minute winner.

Abel Ferreira, who became only the second non-South American manager to win the Copa Libertadores last year, will be demanding a more controlled performance from his side as they look to seal qualification to the knockout stages as quickly as possible.

Independiente del Valle's Beder Caicedo celebrates scoring their fifth goal with teammates in September 2020© Reuters

Independiente del Valle, meanwhile, began their campaign with a 1-1 home draw against Argentinian outfit Defensa y Justicia.

Carlos Rotondi's seventh-minute opener for the visitors woke Independiente into life, with the Ecuadorian side equalising via Christian Ortiz's strike just over 20 minutes later.

The hosts pushed for a winner, having 79% possession and 27 shots across the 90 minutes, but could not beat an inspired Ezequiel Unsain in the opposition's goal.

Renato Paiva will be aware that the trip to Palmeiras represents his side's hardest proposition in Group A, so would likely be content with avoiding defeat once again.

Palmeiras Copa Libertadores form:
  • W

Palmeiras form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores form:
  • D

Independiente del Valle form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D



Team News

Palmeiras midfielder Gabriel Menino in action on March 7, 2021© Reuters

Palmeiras will welcome Matias Vina back from suspension, but Empereur will be unavailable after his dismissal against Universitario.

Natural left-back Lucas Esteves could slot into the left side of Palmeiras' back three, with former Brazil international Luiz Adriano leading the line once again.

Ferreira is unlikely to have Breno Lopes, Gabriel Veron or Lucas Lima to choose from, with the trio still struggling with injury after missing last week's win.

Independiente, meanwhile, are likely to remain unchanged from the XI which performed well despite ultimately falling short of victory against Defensa y Justicia.

Paiva will be hoping for a more clinical showing from his side, with Ortiz hoping to get on the scoresheet once again.

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Luan, Gomez, Esteves; Rocha, Danilo, De Paula, Luis; Veiga, Rony; Adriano

Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Scunke, Tenorio, Segovia; Cheme, Realpe, Pellerano, Guerrero; Faravelli; Montenegro, Ortiz


SM words green background

We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Independiente del Valle

We expect the hosts to edge a potentially tight encounter on Tuesday, with the defending champions hoping for back-to-back wins to move closer to the knockout stages.

Should Ferreira's side improve their discipline, they have the extra quality to get over the line.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 22.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Palmeiras vs Independiente

Palmeiras
50.0%
Draw
0.0%
Independiente del Valle
50.0%
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