Palmeiras and Athletico Paranaense meet in the second leg of the Recopa Sudamericana on Tuesday evening after a thrilling opening 90 minutes last week.
The 30th edition of the tournament is currently locked at 2-2 as the teams prepare for the upcoming fixture at Allianz Parque.
Match preview
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Having been crowned as Copa Libertadores champions at the back end of 2021, Palmeiras' attentions quickly turned to trying to win further silverware in other competitions.
Despite a valiant effort at the Club World Cup, Palmeiras went down by a 2-1 scoreline to Chelsea, their only defeat in 10 matches since Paulista A1 got underway in January.
That tournament is still in its early stages, but Abel Ferreira is currently focused on trying to win the Recopa Sudamericana after the disappointment of losing on penalties last year.
The Palmeiras boss will be satisfied with the current state of play having witnessed his team twice come from behind to claim a draw in the first leg on February 23.
Raphael Veiga's 97th-minute penalty has provided Alviverde with the momentum ahead of the reverse encounter, with Palmeiras looking to win this trophy for the first time.
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The same can be said for Athletico PR, whose only other appearance came in 2019 when lost 3-1 on aggregate to River Plate, who scored all of their goals in the final 25 minutes of the tie.
After last week's frustrations, the narrative is there that they may fail to build on a favourable position once again, and Athletico PR's domestic form suggests that they are battling against the odds.
Four wins and six draws came from their opening 10 games in all competitions before they went down by a 2-1 scoreline at home to Operario PR in Paranaense 1.
On the plus side, 14 goals were scored during their seven fixtures in February, and Alberto Valentim will remain optimistic that they can cause a surprise on away territory.
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Team News
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With the tie finely balanced, neither manager will make widespread changes to his respective side for this contest.
The thoughts of Marlos, a former Shakhtar Donetsk winger, will be dominated by what is currently occurring in Ukraine, but the winger may be handed a start here after his goal as a substitute last week.
Athletico PR midfielder Christian is also an option to be brought back into the midfield, potentially ahead of Hugo Moura.
Ferreria may potentially stick with the same Palmeiras XI, although Ze Rafael and Gabriel Veron are both pushing for an opportunity in midfield and the final third.
However, Dudu is likely to keep the latter out of the front three from the opening whistle.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Kuscevic, Murilo, Piquerez; Atuesta, Jailson, Danilo; Dudu, Veiga, Rony
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Marcinho, Henrique, Heleno, Abner; Fernandes, Moura, Erick, Romulo; Cittadini, Marlos
We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Athletico Paranaense (Palmeiras to win 4-3 on aggregate)
Despite the tie being level, there will be a sense of a missed opportunity from Athletico PR's perspective. With that in mind, we feel that Palmeiras may just do enough in normal time to secure yet another piece of silverware, capitalising on the momentum built last week.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 50.04%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 26.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
