High-flying Palmeiras will be looking to extend their lead at the Campeonato Brasileiro Sere A summit when they host Fluminense on Saturday.
The Alviverde have won each of their last six league meetings on home soil against the visitors, who themselves have won each of their last three games on the road.
Match preview
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Palmeiras extended their impressive winning run across all competitions to eight matches, when they secured a narrow 1-0 victory against Universidad Catolica, winning 2-0 on aggregate, to progress to the quarter-finals of the Copa Libertadores.
Right-back Marcos Rocha scored the only goal of the game nine minutes before the break, keeping Abel Ferreira's hopes of retaining the title alive, something no South American club has done since Boca Juniors between 2000 and 2001.
With spirits high in the Palmeiras camp right now, they return to league action on Saturday with a three point lead at the top of the Brasileiro.
Ferreira's side have scored 24 goals in their 12 league matches; only Bragantino have found the net as many times so far this season. The Alviverde also have the joint-best home record – along with Fortaleza – in the top-flight, winning five and drawing one of their six games at the Allianz Parque.
Palmeiras are eight points better off than where they were at this stage last season, when they were sitting fifth and four points behind Atletico Mineiro at the top. Another victory this weekend would see them extend their lead over Atletico, currently in second place, to six points.
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Fluminense head into Saturday's game after suffering a surprise 1-0 defeat to basement club Gremio last weekend.
The game was seemingly heading for a goalless draw before a controversial penalty was awarded to the visitors in the 90th minute, as Lucas Calegari was deemed to have tripped Alisson inside the area. Cesar Pinares stepped up and sent goalkeeper Muriel the wrong way, to snatch all three points at the death.
That result was just their third defeat of the campaign and has seen Roger Machado's side drop down to ninth in the table, seven points behind the top four.
After finishing outside of the Brasileiro top 10 for five successive years between 2015 and 2019, Fluminense finished fifth last season and qualified for the Copa Libertadores.
They accumulated 17 points from their opening 12 matches, the same number of points they have at this stage this term, and although this year's campaign has been inconsistent, there is still plenty of time for them to put a good run of form together and climb back up the table, as they did 12 months ago.
Success, however, on Saturday seems to be a tall order, against a side they have failed to beat away from home in each of their last seven meetings across all competitions.
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Team News
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Palmeiras trio Rony (thigh), Luan (calf) and Luiz Adriano (knee), remain out due to injury, while Gabriel Menino is unavailable for selection as he is away with the Brazilian national team in Tokyo for the 2020 Olympics.
Ferreira may be tempted to make a few changes to freshen up his team, with the likes of Benjamin Kuscevic, Patrick de Paula and Breno Lopes all pushing for a return to the starting lineup.
Goalkeeper Jailson, who has started five of the last six league matches, is set to replace Weverton between the sticks, while striker Deyverson is expected to lead the line once again.
Left-back Matias Vina may have already played his final game for the club as he is close to completing a move to Italian side Roma.
As for Fluminense, they will be without experienced striker Fred (thigh) as well as forward Raul Bobadilla (calf) and midfielder Hudson (knee) due to injury.
Defender Nino is also unavailable for selection as he is away with the Brazilian national team in Tokyo for the 2020 Olympics, so Manoel is set to keep his place at centre-back alongside Luccas Claro.
Talented forward Kayky – who has agreed a permanent switch to Manchester City in January 2022 – will also be pushing for a place in the starting lineup, though Abel Hernandez is set to start up front once again.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Jailson; Rocha, Kuscevic, Gomez, Renan; Danilo, De Paula; Veiga, Scarpa, Lopes; Deyverson
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Muriel; Calegari, Manoel, Claro, Barcelos; Martinelli, Wellington; Henrique, Ganso, Teieirax; Hernandez
We say: Palmeiras 2-0 Fluminense
Palmeiras are in fine form at the moment, having won 10 of their last 11 games across all competitions, and they should have no problems in securing all three points on Saturday.
The visitors were poor last time out and may struggle again to claim anything at the Allianz Parque.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 54.78%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 20.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Palmeiras in this match.
