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PAOK
Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Feb 24, 2022 at 8pm UK
Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Midtjylland

PAOK
2 - 1
Midtjylland

Zivkovic (20'), Vieirinha (26')
Angel Crespo (23'), Kurtic (56'), Vieirinha (62'), Lyratzis (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Hoegh (80')
Onyedika (90+2'), Dyhr (101')
PAOK win 5-3 on penalties

Preview: PAOK vs. FC Midtjylland - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between PAOK and FC Midtjylland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seeking to overturn a 1-0 first-leg defeat, PAOK will welcome FC Midtjylland to the Stadio Toumbas for the second leg of their Europa Conference League playoff tie on Thursday night.

The hosts will be looking to progress to the last 16 in European competition for the first time in over 40 years, while the visitors are hoping to reach the same stage for the first time in their history.


Match preview

PAOK's Stefan Schwab celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on December 9, 2021© Reuters

PAOK's 14-game unbeaten run across all competitions came to an end when they suffered a slender defeat in the first leg to Midtjylland last week.

Joel Andersson's 20th-minute strike was one of only three shots on target between the two sides, but it proved to be enough to hand the Danish outfit victory.

The White-Blacks are now winless in their last 15 European knockout games, drawing seven and losing eight; their last victory was back in October 2003 when they won 3-0 away against Norwegian side Lyn in the UEFA Cup.

Razvan Lucescu's men played out a goalless draw against Aris in the Greek top flight last weekend, a result which has seen them move further behind league leaders Olympiacos, who now boast an 11-point lead at the summit with only three games remaining.

PAOK are now preparing to host a Danish team for a knockout tie in European competition for the first time since November 1977, when they won 2-1 against Vejle BK in the Cup Winners' Cup. The White-Blacks will need to win by at least two goals if they are avoid defeat or extra time on Thursday.

FC Midtjylland coach Bo Henriksen celebrates their first goal scored by Joel Andersson on February 17, 2022© Reuters

Considering Midtjylland had not played a competitive fixture for 66 days before their first-leg win over PAOK, as a result of the Danish top flight taking their winter break in mid-December, Bo Henriksen will have been delighted with his team's performance last week.

The Wolves, who were founded in 1999, are on course to create history and qualify for the last 16 in European competition for the very first time.

However, Henriksen's men have never won the second of any of their previous six European knockout ties, drawing once and losing five, including a 5-1 defeat to Manchester United in their most recent tie in February 2016.

Midtjylland also head into Thursday's fixture after losing 2-0 at home to Aalborg BK in the Danish Superliga, a result which has extended their winless league run to four matches and has seen them knocked off their perch at the summit by Copenhagen, who now sit above them at the top by one point.

Nevertheless, Henriksen will be hoping his team can replicate last week's resilient performance in Thessaloniki, with just a draw all that is required to book their place in the last 16.

PAOK Europa Conference League form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L

PAOK form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

FC Midtjylland Europa Conference League form:
  • W

FC Midtjylland form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

Midtjylland's Charles celebrates with Erik Sviatchenko after the match on February 17, 2022© Reuters

PAOK will be able to welcome back Giannis Michailidis, as he has now served his three-match suspension; the 22-year-old is set to start at centre-back alongside Jose Angel Crespo.

Experienced midfielder Jasmin Kurtic, the club's top goalscorer this term with 14 strikes to his name, and winger Thomas Murg both missed the first leg with minor injuries, but the former was able to play the final 10 minutes of last weekend's league game as a substitute and so he could feature in midweek.

Malmo loanee Antonio Colak will be in contention to start up front, though English-born attacker Chuba Akpom is set to get the nod on Thursday, with Andrija Zivkovic and Alexandru Mitrita to operate on the flanks.

As for Midtjylland, Henriksen may decide to name an unchanged starting lineup, following their first-leg victory.

Former Schalke and Crystal Palace playmaker Max Meyer will be pushing to start his first game for the Danish outfit since joining on loan from Fenerbahce last month, but Brazilian Evander and Raphael Onyedika are the two most likely candidates to start in centre-midfield.

Pione Sisto has only scored twice in 28 appearances across all competitions this season, but the former Celta Vigo man is expected to lead the line in attack, with Gustav Isaksen and Junior Brumado providing support in the final third.

PAOK possible starting lineup:
Paschalakis; Lyratzis, Michailidis, Crespo, Sidcley; Tsigaras, Schwab; A. Zivkovic, Augusto, Mitrita; Akpom

FC Midtjylland possible starting lineup:
Olafsson; Dalsgaard, Sviatchenko, Juninho; Andersson, Onyedika, Evander, Paulinho; Isaksen, Brumad; Sisto


SM words green background

We say: PAOK 1-1 FC Midtjylland (Midtjylland to win 2-1 on aggregate)

Neither team has been in free-scoring form recently and so Thursday's second leg is set to be a cagey affair, with Midtjylland looking to hold on to their one-goal advantage.

A low-scoring draw could be on the cards in Thessaloniki, which would be enough to see the visitors progress on aggregate to the last 16.






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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 49.55%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 25.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for a FC Midtjylland win it was 0-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PAOK would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: PAOK vs Midtjylland

PAOK
66.7%
Draw
20.4%
FC Midtjylland
13.0%
54
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