Seeking to close the gap on their hosts to a single point, with a game still in hand, DC United travel to meet Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park on Saturday.
While United thumped struggling Toronto 7-1 last time out, the Union have drifted away from the top of the MLS Eastern Conference standings after a run of just two points from three games.
Match preview
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Brazilian forward Sergio Santos was the hero last week, as he headed in a late equaliser for 10-man Philadelphia to earn a 1-1 draw with the New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena.
Even after stand-in goalkeeper Matt Freese was sent off for denial of a goalscoring opportunity, the 2020 Supporters' Shield winners salvaged a point, having played the final 30 minutes a player short.
Though they have now failed to taste victory since last month - some four matches ago - Philadelphia previously emerged on top in all of their last three home fixtures, keeping a clean sheet on each occasion: the first time they have achieved such a feat since 2017.
Jim Curtin's team are still placed on the shoulder of the East's leading sides - New England Revolution and Orlando City - and will expect the combination of home advantage and recent supremacy over their latest opponents to result in a valuable win, which would keep them in the mix near the table's summit.
The Union are unbeaten in nine straight games against DC United - eight of which they have won - dating back to the beginning of the 2017 season.
Polish target man Kacper Przybylko particularly enjoys taking on the capital club too, as the former Bundesliga striker has netted five times in as many games against United - including the winning goal when the sides last met in May.
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Bouncing straight back from a last-gasp defeat to New York City, which ended a three-game unbeaten run at the end of last month, DC United dealt a sixth straight league defeat to Toronto at the Audi Field last time out - and in spectacular fashion.
With seven different names filling the scoresheet, the Washington-based team won 7-1: the most goals registered in one game throughout their quarter-century-long club history. The six-goal margin was also the largest in their record books, as they moved to within touching distance of the all-important top seven.
The Black and Reds remain just outside the playoff places in the finely-balanced Eastern Conference standings, so a point or three can go a long way to keeping tabs on the top sides.
After finishing the 2020 season in 13th place, expectations were relatively low for one of the original MLS franchises this term. The proactive approach favoured by head coach Hernan Losada may be set to bear fruit, though, as 12 goals in their last five league matches indicates that they can pose a threat to any team in the division.
Confidence was built further in midweek, when United defeated El Salvador Primera Division side Alianza FC in a friendly, so they will visit Pennsylvania with genuine aspirations to return home with maximum points.
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Team News
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The Union's reserve goalkeeper Matt Freese effectively spurned his chance to impress Jim Curtin while regular first choice Andre Blake is at the Gold Cup with Jamaica, having been sent off and subsequently suspended for Saturday's game. Therefore, Joe Bendik is most likely to take his place, after coming on as a substitute in New Jersey.
Blake aside, Philly will be without leading scorer Cory Burke and defender Alvas Powell, who are also representing Jamaica this month, while midfielder Jack de Vries has yet to return from an injury sustained in April and Ilsinho is still struggling with a groin injury.
Up front, Sergio Santos will hope his goal against the Red Bulls will prove enough to earn selection alongside Kacper Przybylko, who has failed to score in his last four outings.
DC, meanwhile, have been nurturing teenage talent Kevin Paredes - who has settled in well as a left wing-back during just his second senior campaign - and coach Hernan Losada will rely on him again in the vistors' customary 3-4-3 setup, after the Virginia native recently netted his first-ever MLS goal in his fourth start from the last five matches.
Having beaten El Salvador's Alianza FC 1-0 on Wednesday - when Losada fielded a mix-and-match side comprising veterans, fringe players and rising stars from Loudoun United FC (the club's USL Championship side) - United will revert to a more familiar first XI this weekend.
Bill Hamid should replace Chris Seitz in goal, with Hassan Pinto and Yordy Reyna among several others set to drop out for the Black and Red. Defender Chris Odoi-Atsem made his comeback from an abdominal injury in midweek and could possibly feature from the bench.
Top scorer Ola Kamara could lead the line after registering another goal in the seven-goal demolition of Toronto a fortnight ago, but he has competition from Nigel Robertha.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Bendik; Wagner, Elliot, Glesnes, Collin; Martinez, Flach, Sullivan; Monteiro; Przybylko, Santos
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Pines, Brilliant, Hines-Ike; Mora, Canouse, Gressel, Paredes; Asad, Kamara, Arriola
We say: Philadelphia Union 2-1 DC United
The Union's dominance over their Washington counterparts is set to continue on Saturday, as they have generally made the most of home advantage this year and will surely not go four games without a win.
While DC may have blitzed deeply flawed opponents last time out in the league, Philly will provide a much tougher proposition for their three-man defence to handle.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 53.13%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for DC United had a probability of 21.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
