Poland play host to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the UEFA Nations League on Wednesday evening knowing that maximum points may be enough to move into first place in Group A1.
However, just three points separate top and bottom, giving the visitors a window of opportunity to become a factor higher in the standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
When the draw was made the 2020-21 competition, many felt that Italy or the Netherlands would be left to battle it out for the UEFA Nations League Finals in 2021.
Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina have shown that they are no pushovers, however, and whoever prevails from their next contest will fancy their chances of progression into the final four.
Goals have been few and far between in this group, something which has played its part in keeping these two sides in contention at the halfway stage.
Although two goalless draws were posted on Sunday, Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina would have been the happier of the quartet of teams ahead of their showdown in Wroclaw.
Poland barely laid a glove on Italy, recording just three shots to the 16 which came from their opponents, but Jerzy Brzeczek's side have remained within one point of the second-placed Azzurri.
While Bosnia posted similar statistics against the Netherlands, their stalemate in Zenica has kept the out-of-form Oranje at risk of losing first position.
Dusan Bajevic will hope that his squad are motivated to gain revenge on Poland after witnessing his players succumb to a 2-1 defeat in the reverse fixture last month.
Bajevic is still awaiting his first win after his appointment at the back end of 2019, and the veteran boss will be aware that he is under increasing pressure after last week's exit from the Euro 2020 playoffs at the hands of Northern Ireland.
Poland Nations League form: LWD
Poland form (all competitions): WWLWWD
Bosnia-Herzegovina Nations League form: DLD
Bosnia-Herzegovina form (all competitions): LWDLDD
Team News
© Reuters
Poland are able to call upon Jan Bednarek, who missed the draw with Italy due to a one-match ban.
Despite failing to trouble the Italian defenders, Robert Lewandowski will retain his place in the side ahead of Arkadiusz Milik.
Brzeczek may decide to use the latter as a second striker, replacing Jakub Moder who has started the two last two fixtures.
Bajevic will almost certainly hand a recall to Edin Dzeko, but Miralem Pjanic may drop down to the substitutes' bench.
Armin Hodzic misses out for Bosnia-Herzegovina through suspension.
Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Kedziora, Glik, Bednarek, Bereszynski; Szymanski, Krychowiak, Klich, Grosicki; Milik; Lewandowski
Bosnia-Herzegovina possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Cipetic, Ahmedhodzic, Sanicanin, Kolasinac; Loncar, Hadziahmetovic; Visca, Gojak, Krunic; Dzeko
We say: Poland 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Both of these sides will be on a high after avoiding defeat to higher-ranked opposition over the weekend. However, we feel that it is Poland who are in the best shape to build on their most recent result, and the home side could run out relatively comfortable victors here.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 28.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.
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