A place in the semi-finals of the Taca de Portugal is at stake when Portimonense and Mafra square off at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao on Thursday.
The Segunda Liga side have enjoyed a stellar cup run, scoring eight goals and conceding once in four games, while the hosts will look to end their two-game losing streak and keep their cup quest alive.
Match preview
Portimonense kept their cup dreams alive by the skin of their teeth as they needed penalties to see off a spirited Famalicao side when they squared off in the round of 16 on December 21.
In a cagey affair at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Aylton Boa Morte put the visitors ahead on the stroke of half time before Bruno Rodrigues restored parity in the 82nd minute, and with nothing to separate the sides after extra time, the Portimao-based outfit claimed a 4-2 win on penalties
Prior to that, Paulo Sergio's men saw off Oliveirense on penalties after a thrilling 3-3 draw in their cup curtain-raiser on October 17 before sailing to a comprehensive 3-0 win over Penafiel in round four one month later.
However, they head into Thursday's game in shaky form, losing each of their last two games, with the most recent coming at the weekend when they lost 2-1 at the hands of Maritimo in the Primeira Liga.
Portimonense have now failed to pick up a regular-time win in all but one of their last six games across all competitions, losing three and claiming two draws in that time.
This has been owing to their recent drop at the defensive end of the pitch, as they have conceded 10 goals and managed just one clean sheet in those six outings.
Meanwhile, Mafra turned in a performance of the highest quality as they came from behind to secure a thrilling 3-1 win over Primeira Liga side Moreirense and book their place in the quarter-finals.
Despite going one goal and one man down inside the opening 32 minutes, the second-tier side rallied and turned the game on its head through strikes from Bura, Pedro Barcelos and Andrezinho.
This was followed by an uneventful goalless draw against Varzim when the sides locked horns at the Estadio Municipal de Mafra in round 17 of the Segunda Liga last Saturday.
Ricardo Sousa's side are unbeaten in each of their most recent four games in all competitions, picking up two wins and two draws, while they have lost just once in their last 12.
Thursday's game will be the first meeting between the sides since January 2016, when the spoils were shared in an uneventful goalless draw.
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Team News
Portimonense will once again take to the pitch without Achraf Lazaar after the Moroccan full-back picked up a severe fibula injury back in September's game against Santa Clara.
However, they will be boosted by the return of Pedro Sa, who is available for selection after serving his suspension for receiving his marching orders against Sporting Lisbon two weeks back.
The 28-year-old will be tasked with taking control of the midfield, alongside Carlinhos, who has racked up 13 starts in the Primeira Liga this season.
Mafra, on the other hand, should line up with a four-man midfield of Bruno Silva, Pedro Aparicio, Guilherme and 22-year-old Tomas Domingos.
At the back, Brazilian goalkeeper Renan Dida should start between the sticks behind the trio of Pedro Henrique Barcelos Silva, Pedro Pacheco and Bura.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Possignolo, Pedrao, Rocha; Cande, Sa, Carlinhos, Nakajima; Morte, Angulo, Fabricio
Mafra possible starting lineup:
Dida; P Silva, Pacheco, Bura; B Silva, Aparicio, Guilherme, Domingos; Martins, Lucas, Andrezinho
We say: Portimonense 1-0 Mafra
Portimonense will look to end their two-game losing streak and progress into the cup semi-finals for just the fourth time in their history and a first since 1988. However, they face the stern test of taking on a defensively solid Mafra side who have conceded just six goals in their last seven games. While the visitors are capable of causing an upset, we are backing Portimonense to come away with the win in normal time.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 57.26%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Mafra had a probability of 19.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Mafra win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
