Porto welcome Boavista to the Estadio do Dragao on Saturday, in a crucial game at both ends of the Primeira Liga table.
Last time out, the home side drew a dramatic Taca de Portugal semi-final first leg with Braga, while Boavista fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Nacional.
Match preview
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On Wednesday night, Porto travelled to Braga in the first leg of the Taca de Portugal semi-final, with the match ending 1-1.
After 70 minutes, with Os Dragoes leading 1-0 thanks to a Mehdi Taremi goal, Luis Diaz was shown a red card, before the Primeira Liga champions were reduced to nine men deep into added time, when Mateus Uribe was sent off after 97 minutes.
Five minutes later, Fransergio scored for the hosts with the last kick of the game to see the leg finish level.
Remarkably, in the game before that cup tie, Braga again scored late to draw with Porto, when Fransergio found the net after 87 minutes, followed by a 94th-minute Nicolas Gaitan goal to see the sides draw 2-2 in league action, after goals from Taremi and Sergio Oliveira gave the Dragoes a two-goal lead.
That was a second consecutive draw for the defending champions, as strugglers Belenenses previously held them to a 0-0 stalemate.
Sergio Conceicao will be desperate to put those frustrating results in the past, and turn around their fortunes with a win in this game, which could see them gain ground on league leaders Sporting Lisbon.
His side currently sit eight points off the top spot, as they look to retain the league title after fending off Benfica to pick up their 29th domestic crown last season.
Porto have once again shown themselves to be a potent attacking outfit this campaign, with no side in the league matching their 41 goals so far in the top flight.
That has led them to a 24-match unbeaten run in all competitions, with their last loss coming in October.
However, it is still crucial that they get back to winning ways in the league, in order to keep pace with Sporting, who currently sit comfortably at the summit of the division, having won their last four matches.
Conceicao's side take on a Boavista team who will be desperate for a win of their own here, which could see them move out of the league's bottom three.
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They come into this game after two consecutive narrow losses in league action, falling to Gil Vicente and Nacional.
Most recently, Nuno Santos turned the ball into his own net, gifting Nacional the only goal of the game and condemning As Panteras to an eighth Primeira Liga loss of the season.
In the game at home to Gil Vicente, the sides looked set to play out a 1-1 draw, before Yves Baraye snatched all three points for the visitors in the final five minutes.
Before those results, Jesualdo Ferreira's side picked up a crucial victory, when they won 2-1 away at fellow strugglers Portimonense, thanks to a second-half comeback, with goals from Alberth Elis and Paulinho sealing their second league win of the season.
That result lifted Ferreira's men off the foot of the table, and they now sit just two points adrift of automatic safety, which will offer encouragement for Os Axadrezados as a win could see them jump out of the bottom three.
However, they may not be too confident coming into this game against the league's best attacking side, as only Famalicao have conceded more than the 30 that Boavista have shipped so far this season.
Porto Primeira Liga form: WDWWDD
Porto form (all competitions): WWWDDD
Boavista Primeira Liga form: DLLWLL
Team News
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The Dragoes will be without Luis Diaz and Mateus Uribe through suspension, after the pair were shown red cards in the draw with Braga.
Conceicao also has several absentees through injury, with full-backs Nanu and Zaidu Sanusi both spending time on the sidelines.
They are joined by midfielder Otavio, who remains out of contention with a muscle injury.
However, they will be boosted by the return of Jesus Corona, who missed the game against Braga with a suspension.
The clinical pairing of Mehdi Taremi and Moussa Marega should lead the Porto line once again in this crucial game, with the two forwards registering a combined 14 goals and 10 assists in league action so far this season.
Boavista will be without midfielder Miguel Reisinho, who remains out with a ligament rupture.
They also face the huge loss of the experienced Javi Garcia, who will serve a suspension after he was shown a red card in the loss to Nacional.
We expect the visitors to revert back to a system of three centre-backs for this game, after they played a more attacking side against Nacional, with Chiwodie Awaziem, Adil Rami and Cristian Devenish expected to form their back line.
Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Mbemba, Pepe, Sarr; Corona, Oliveira, Grujic, Anderson; Marega, Taremi
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Leonardo; Awaziem, Devenish, Rami; Cannon, Paulinho, Gomes, Santos, Elis; Njie, Gustavo
We say: Porto 2-0 Boavista
While we do not see this being a routine win for Conceicao's men, thanks to a busy recent schedule and several notable absentees, we still expect them to show their quality here and get back to winning ways, in a game which they will feel they have to pick up three points from.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.68%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 9.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.64%) and 3-0 (10.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
