Two sides looking to challenge for promotion in their respective divisions go toe to toe in the second round of the FA Cup on Saturday afternoon when Portsmouth welcome Harrogate Town to Fratton Park.
The hosts are on a run of six successive victories in all competitions, whilst their visitors are sitting seventh in the League Two table.
Match preview
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Portsmouth are determined to return to the Championship this season, after an absence from the top two tiers approaching a decade and a number of near misses in recent years.
Things started well with three wins in their first three games of the campaign, but a run of just one win and six defeats in 11 games through September and October saw them plummet down the standings.
Halloween marked the start of a turnaround for Danny Cowley's side, though, and they have now won five of their last six to move back up to ninth in League One, just two points off the playoff spots.
During that run, they also produced a narrow 1-0 win against Harrow Borough in the first round of the FA Cup, thanks to a Marcus Harness goal.
Cowley would have likely expected a more convincing scoreline against a side in the Southern League Premier Division South, but it got Pompey to the second round, where they must now get past a team with a similar name but a far stronger reputation.
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Promoted from the National League via the 2019-20 playoffs, Harrogate's first season as a football league team ended with them finishing comfortably clear of the relegation spots in 17th spot.
They have built on that taster of life in League Two and pushed on this campaign, now sitting just inside the playoff spots in seventh.
The Sulphurites held high-flying Swindon Town to a draw away from home at the weekend, but will have been a little disappointed to concede in the 83rd minute after holding the lead for an hour courtesy of a Jack Diamond goal.
They also dealt well with a tricky fixture in the FA Cup first round against National League side Wrexham, turning the match around with two goals in five second-half minutes to win 2-1.
Much of the club's success in recent years has been down to long-time manager Simon Weaver, who was appointed in May 2009 and has taken charge of over 550 Harrogate games, making him the longest-serving manager in the football league.
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Team News
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Portsmouth's main goal is to secure promotion to the Championship, meaning that head coach Cowley will likely mix the squad up somewhat for Saturday's clash.
Arsenal-loanee Miguel Azeez, Ellis Harrison and Michael Jacobs are pushing for a start, with Louis Thompson, George Hirst and Reeco Hackett-Fairchild set to drop to the bench.
Weaver is less likely to rotate, which should see the team continue to line up in a 4-3-3 formation with goalscorer Diamond and George Thomson either side of Luke Armstrong.
Only four players in League Two have netted more goals than Armstrong and the Harrogate man will be looking to add to his tally for the campaign on Saturday.
Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Romeo, Raggett, Ogilvie, Freeman; Jacobs, Harness, Williams, Azeez; Harrison, Curtis
Harrogate Town possible starting lineup:
Oxley; Burrell, Smith, Hall, Page; Kerry, Pattison, Falkingham; Diamond, Armstrong, Thomson
We say: Portsmouth 0-1 Harrogate Town
Whilst it is Pompey in the higher division, with the better pedigree and with home advantage, they will be resting some senior players and Harrogate are a determined side on a roll. Therefore, we are backing an upset via a narrow away victory.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 51.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 24.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Harrogate Town win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Harrogate Town would win this match.
