Battling it out for a place in the final of the European Under-19 Championship 2023, Group A winners Portugal Under-19s meet Group B runners-up Norway Under-19s in Thursday's semi-finals.
The teams clash at Tony Bezzina Stadium, with Portugal seeking a sixth final at this level and semi-final debutants Norway aiming to break more new ground.
Match preview
Confirming their status as one of the tournament favourites, Portugal stormed through the group stage of the Euro Under-19 finals in Malta by winning all three games; scoring nine goals and conceding just twice in the process.
Having also swept aside all their opponents in the elite round of qualifying - Sweden, Czechia and Croatia - they confirmed a place at the championships for an 11th time, and the relentless progress of Joaquim Milheiro's side has now seen them book a ninth semi-final appearance at this level.
Gabriel Bras, Joao Goncalves and qualifying top scorer Hugo Felix have all found the net twice this summer, as the latter's solo strike against Poland secured three points on the opening day to set up an impressive cruise through Group A.
Portugal then crushed 10-man Italy 5-1 to clinch a last-four spot: after a close-fought first half, they went up a gear after the interval against an ailing Azzurrini in Ta'Qali.
Finally, they concluded their campaign with a third straight win, beating already-eliminated hosts Malta 2-1 on Monday, and now sights are set on adding another continental crown to the Iberian nation's sole success at the Under-19 Euros.
From five previous final appearances, only one has seen Portugal go on and lift the trophy, so Milheiro and co are aiming to emulate a 2018 team featuring wing wizards Jota and Francisco Trincao by going all the way on this occasion.
However, standing between them and a place in Sunday's final - where either Italy or Spain will await - is an opponent with nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Norway have made it to a men's UEFA youth semi-final for the first time since 1992's Under-18 Euros, and until this week the Nordic nation had never before progressed from a group stage at this age level.
This summer, though, Luis Pimenta's boys have done so by earning five points from their Group B campaign, in which they finished second to section winners Spain.
After Norway edged out Greece in a nine-goal thriller on the opening day, with Niklas Odegard bagging a brace in a dramatic 5-4 win, their 1-1 draw with Iceland set up a last-day contest with Spain, who fielded a much-changed XI.
A battling 0-0 stalemate ensured the Norwegians got the point they required to progress, and Portugal-born Pimenta now seeks to take a team which won five games out of six during qualifying - including a 2-1 victory over France - into this weekend's final.
Team News
Having scored a total of five goals in qualifying and at this summer's finals, Benfica forward Hugo Felix provides one of Portugal's main attacking threats, in a front trio led by Sporting striker Rodrigo Ribeiro.
The latter made a handful of Primeira Liga and Champions League appearances for his club last season, as well as notching six goals in the UEFA Youth League.
Both will join several other regular starters who were rested for the win over Malta - such as Manchester City's Carlos Borges - in returning to the starting XI on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Norway's top scorers in the finals so far have been Niklas Odegard and Atalanta starlet Alwande Roaldsoy (both with two), while 18-year-old forward Erik Flataker racked up four during qualifying.
Full-back Vetle Walle Egeli is set to captain the side, in a back four also featuring Nikolai Hopland, who made his senior debut for Aalesund aged just 16.
Portugal Under-19s possible starting lineup:
G. Ribeiro; Esteves, A. Ribeiro, Bras, Marques; Sa, N. Felix, Prioste; H. Felix, R. Ribeiro, Borges
Norway Under-19s possible starting lineup:
Ree; Solheim, Haram, Hopland, Egeli; Odegard, Roaldsoy, Braude; Sivertsen, Flataker, Jakobsen
We say: Portugal Under-19s 1-0 Norway Under-19s
Aside from their nine-goal epic against Greece, so far Norway have kept things tight at the back, and they could truly test Portugal's ability to carve open any side that stands in their way. Nonetheless, the Portuguese squad is more talented in most areas and has shown the mentality required to maximise their vast potential.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal Under-19s win with a probability of 72.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Norway Under-19s had a probability of 10.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal Under-19s win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.13%) and 3-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.17%), while for a Norway Under-19s win it was 0-1 (3.57%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal Under-19s would win this match.
Jonathan O'Shea
