PSV Eindhoven are in a commanding position in their Champions League third qualifying round contest with FC Midtjylland courtesy of a 3-0 victory in the first leg of the clash last week.
The Dutch giants will now be looking to finish the job and book their spot in the playoff round of the 2021-22 competition when they travel to MCH Arena on Tuesday night.
Match preview
© Reuters
Midtjylland impressively eliminated Celtic in the second qualifying round of this season's competition courtesy of a 3-2 aggregate success, but they face a huge task to turn this contest around against PSV.
The Wolves played in last season's Champions League, finishing fourth in Group D, picking up just two points from their six matches against Liverpool, Ajax and Atalanta BC.
However, it is difficult to imagine them being present in the group stages of the 2021-22 European Cup, as PSV looked far too strong in the first leg in Eindhoven, scoring three times in the first half of the contest through Noni Madueke, Mario Gotze and Cody Gakpo.
Bo Henriksen's side will enter this match off the back of an impressive result, though, having recorded a 4-1 victory over Vejle in the Danish Superliga on Friday.
A total of nine points from four matches has left Midtjylland at the top of their domestic table, and they will be desperate to reclaim the title, having finished second behind Brondby last term.
© Reuters
PSV, meanwhile, have not yet begun their league season, meaning that they have been able to fully concentrate on the Champions League over the last few weeks, and it has shown in their performances.
The Dutch giants were excellent in the second qualifying round, recording a 7-2 aggregate victory over Galatasaray, while they put in another strong performance against Midtjylland last week.
PSV will also enter this match off the back of a 4-0 win over Ajax in the Dutch Super Cup on Saturday, with Madueke scoring twice in a brilliant performance in Amsterdam.
The Red and Whites last competed in the group stage of the Champions League in 2018-19, when they finished bottom of Group B, having picked up just two points from their clashes with Barcelona, Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan, but they appear to be a more well-rounded side at this moment in time.
It would be a huge shock if PSV did not make the playoff round from this position, but head coach Roger Schmidt will be ensuring that his players are not complacent ahead of the trip to Denmark.
- D
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Midtjylland boss Henriksen is expected to resist the temptation to shuffle his pack from the first leg, while he is also likely to keep faith with a back three despite their struggles in Eindhoven.
Junior Brumado could again be supported by Awer Mabil and Anders Dreyer in the final third of the field, although Gustav Isaksen and Mads Hansen are also options in the attacking areas.
Evander and Charles should start as the two central midfielders for the home side, while Paulinho and Joel Andersson are also expected to feature from the first whistle in the second leg.
As for PSV, Schmidt made just one change to the side that started last week for the clash with Ajax on Saturday, as Olivier Boscagli came into the team to replace Armando Obispo at the back.
Obispo is expected to return to the starting side for this match, but the other 10 players should keep their spots, with Gotze operating in the middle of a midfield three.
Madueke, who came through the youth system at Tottenham Hotspur, has made an excellent start to the 2021-22 campaign and should again feature alongside Gakpo and Eran Zahavi in the final third of the field.
FC Midtjylland possible starting lineup:
Lossl; Onyedika, Sviatchenko, Nicolaisen; Andersson, Charles, Evander, Paulinho; Dreyer, Brumado, Mabil
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Mwene, Ramalho, Obispo, Max; Sangare, Gotze, Van Ginkel; Madueke, Zahavi, Gakpo
We say: FC Midtjylland 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (PSV 5-1 on aggregate)
Midtjylland are certainly capable of making this a much tougher contest for PSV, but the damage was done in the first leg, and we are finding it impossible to back the Danish side to turn the tie around. PSV's form has led us to predict a 2-1 away win, which would see them progress 5-1 on aggregate.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 36.16% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
