PSV Eindhoven make the trip to Israel for the second leg of their Europa Conference League playoff tie with Maccabi Tel Aviv holding the narrowest of advantages.
Nevertheless, while an early goal in the Netherlands proved to be the difference, the home side will fancy their chances of causing a European upset on Thursday night.
Match preview
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While Roger Schmidt would have been satisfied when PSV were drawn with Maccabi, he would have stressed to his side that they cannot afford to take their opponents lightly.
Even though that probably was not the case last week, the Dutch giants could only prevail by a 1-0 scoreline courtesy of Cody Gakpo's early strike.
PSV are still the clear favourites to earn a spot in the next round, but Schmidt needs to see more of the quality which has been on show in the Eredivisie.
As many as 12 goals have been scored in their last three fixtures, the most recent treble coming at home to Heerenveen on Sunday.
Although Schmidt's team still sit five points adrift of leaders Ajax, they are generally performing to a level where they can enjoy a comfortable night in Israel if they perform to their best.
At a time when PSV have won 10 of their last 12 games in all competitions, Maccabi have lost just twice over the same amount of contests, their other setback coming at domestic leaders Maccabi Haifa.
Mladen Krstajic's side are still eight points adrift of the frontrunners, but the Serbian will generally be delighted with how his team have performed since he took over in December.
The only time that Maccabi have failed to score in 19 matches was against PSV last week, a statistic highlighting why the visitors cannot afford any complacency.
Former Watford forward Stipe Perica has netted 11 goals this campaign with three strikes coming in his last six appearances.
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Team News
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Eran Zahavi could return to the PSV starting lineup, potentially taking the place of Joey Veerman.
Olivier Boscagli served a suspension last time out and may get the nod over Philipp Max in the centre of defence.
Marco van Ginkel could be preferred to Erick Gutierrez, who was forced off with an injury during the first half against Heerenveen.
Having made a number of changes at the weekend, Krstajic may revert back to the Maccabi XI which gave a solid account of themselves in the first leg.
That would see defender Josue Sa and winger Matan Hozez both return to the substitutes' bench.
Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting lineup:
Peretz; Geraldes, Nachmias, Saborit, Baltaxa; Biton, Glazer, Shamir, Kanichowsky; Perica, Jovanovic
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Mwene, Teze, Boscagli, Mauro Junior; Van Ginke, Sangare; Madueke, Gotze, Gakpo; Zahavi
We say: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (PSV Eindhoven to win 3-1 on aggregate)
With away goals no longer a factor, PSV know that they face a difficult game on Thursday night. Nevertheless, with their superior firepower, it would come as a surprise if the Dutch outfit cannot score at least a couple of goals to put the tie beyond their opponent's reach.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.88%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Maccabi Tel Aviv win it was 1-0 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
