PSV Eindhoven play host to PEC Zwolle on Thursday knowing that victory would put the club on the brink of securing Champions League football for next season.
Safe from relegation and with little to play for, the visitors head into this contest looking to ensure that they do not end the campaign with four successive defeats.
Match preview
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After their stuttering results during the early part of 2021, PSV were only likely to become genuine contenders in the Eredivisie title race if Ajax faltered during the run-in.
While that did not materialise, Roger Schmidt will at least be satisfied with his side's recent form after 13 points were collected from five matches.
That return has not been enough to shake off the attention of AZ Alkmaar in the race for the second Champions League spot, but PSV deserve credit for keeping their fate in their own hands.
As well as scoring 10 goals during their improved run, PSV have also conceded just one effort at the other end - significant progress from a group of players who could not keep out the opposition earlier in the campaign.
Top goalscorer Donyell Malen has netted in three of his last five appearances, taking his tally for the season to 18 from 31 outings.
From Zwolle's perspective, they would be content with the season ending right now, having already secured their Eredivisie status for another 12 months.
Picking up three wins from four games ended any concerns regarding relegation, but Zwolle have still posted seven defeats from 11 matches.
The most recent of those setbacks came at home to bottom side ADO Den Haag, the Bluefingers succumbing to an early goal from Bobby Adekanye.
With PSV and Groningen to come, things get no easier for Bert Konterman and his squad, and they require at least three points from that double-header to stay in contention for 12th position.
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Team News
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After months of being restricted to substitute outings, Marco van Ginkel made his long-awaited first start of the campaign during the win over Willem II.
However, Schmidt may err on the side of caution, replacing the PSV midfielder with Pablo Rosario for this game.
Barring any late fitness issues, that could prove to be the sole alteration to the team given the importance of this fixture.
In sharp contrast, Konterman will almost certainly make sweeping changes to the Zwolle team which failed to impress against ADO Den Haag.
Reza Ghoochannejhad, Benson Manuel, Immanuel Pherai and Marc-Olivier Doue are all in contention to be handed starting roles on Thursday.
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Mvogo; Dumfries, Teze, Boscagli, Max; Sangare, Rosario; Vertessen, Gakpo; Malen, Madueke
PEC Zwolle possible starting lineup:
Mous; Doue, Lam, Nakayama, Paal; Saymak, Belt, Clement; Pherai, Tedic, Manuel
We say: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 PEC Zwolle
After their surprise defeat last time out, question marks have naturally emerged over whether Zwolle have the desire required to end the season on the front foot.
While we expect an improved performance, PSV should still have plenty in the tank to ease to victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 72.95%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 11%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 3-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
