Two sides without a league win so far in 2022 meet in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey on Wednesday evening as Rayo Vallecano welcome Mallorca to the Estadio de Vallecas.
The hosts have slipped down the La Liga table since the start of the year but remain in the top half, whilst the visitors are just one spot above the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Losses to Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, as well as a 1-1 draw with Real Betis in between, have seen Rayo Vallecano slip to eighth in the table.
Nonetheless, it remains a solid first campaign back in the top tier for the newly-promoted side, who returned to La Liga in the summer after two years in the second division.
Manager Andoni Iraola's success has not been limited to the league either, the 39-year-old also inspiring his men to an impressive cup run this campaign.
Los Franjirrojos came from behind to secure a 2-1 win over Girona in the previous round, thanks to goals either side of half time from Sergi Guardiola, and booked their place in the last eight for the first time in two decades.
A run to the quarter-finals in 2002 was ended by the mighty Real Madrid, but Iraola will fancy his chances of reaching the semis on this occasion with a far less formidable foe in wait.
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Mallorca are now on a run of four consecutive defeats in La Liga - including a 2-0 loss to bottom side Levante - which has seen them drop to 17th in the table.
They are now just one place and two points above the relegation zone and are on a worrying run of just one victory in their last 13 league games.
Luis Garcia's side - who finished second in the Segunda Division last season - are bidding to make it successive campaigns at this level of football for the first time since 2013, and the former Liverpool forward will have to find some way of inspiring some belief in his team if they are to do so.
He can perhaps use their cup run as inspiration, with Los Bermellones having reached the quarter-finals for the first time since 2012 thanks to a strong 2-1 win over mid-table Espanyol in the last round.
However, they will come up against a side higher up the league table who beat them 3-1 in their previous meeting in November.
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Team News
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Iraola made several changes for the last Copa del Rey tie at Girona, before reverting to a more regular starting XI for their last league match.
Considering that game ended in a loss, the manager may choose to reinstate the players who got the team to this stage, which would see Mario Suarez and Santi Comesana return to the starting lineup at the expense of Esteban Saveljich and Oscar Trejo.
Midfielder Oscar Valentin will also be able to return, having served a one-match suspension for five yellow cards.
As for Mallorca, Dominik Greif remains a doubt following a positive COVID-19 test, while Antonio Raillo could again miss out due to an ankle problem.
Garcia will face a similar conundrum when choosing between regular league starters and those who impressed in the cup last time out, with Rodrigo Battaglia having returned to the centre of the field for the heavy loss at Villarreal.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Zidane; Balliu, Suarez, Catena, Garcia; Trejo, Ciss; Palazon, Comesana, Nteka; Guardiola
Mallorca possible starting lineup:
Roman; Maffeo, Russo, Sedlar, Costa; Battaglia, Ruiz de Galarreta; D. Rodriguez, Kubo, Sanchez; Prats
We say: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Mallorca
This could be an exciting evening of football with both sides likely to go all out as they attempt to secure a first Copa del Rey semi-final in a long time. We are backing the hosts to make the most of home advantage and their slightly better form to secure a narrow victory on this occasion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 46.96%. A win for Mallorca had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Mallorca win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Rayo Vallecano.
