Borussia Dortmund will welcome RB Leipzig to Westfalenstadion for their top-four clash in the Bundesliga on Saturday evening.
BVB have won four of their last five league games on home soil, scoring 17 goals in the process, while the visitors have won each of their last three top-flight away matches, finding the net 13 times during this run.
Match preview
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Borussia Dortmund's title hopes suffered a major blow as they could only play out a 1-1 draw away at FC Koln in their most recent league game on March 20.
Marius Wolf's eighth-minute strike was cancelled out nine minutes before half time by Sebastian Andersson, forcing BVB to share the spoils for just the third time this campaign.
After Bayern Munich cruised to a 4-0 win over Union Berlin, Marco Rose's men have now slipped six points behind the Bavarian outfit at the summit. A Champions League place is all but secured, however, as they are 12 points clear of Freiburg in fifth.
Dortmund have recently lacked a clinical edge in the final third, scoring only four goals in as many matches and not scoring more than once in a single game during this run. To put that into contest, the last time that BVB failed to score more than once in four successive league fixtures was back in 2014 (six games).
The return to full fitness of star striker Erling Braut Haaland, however, will likely provide Rose's men with a much-needed attacking threat for their final seven Bundesliga games. The in-demand Norway international has scored more goals for Dortmund against RB Leipzig (six) across all competitions than against any other team, scoring a brace in each of his three appearances.
Dortmund have had no problems finding the net on home soil this season, scoring at least twice in 12 of their 13 league games at Westfalenstadion, winning 11 in the process which only Bayern can match so far this term.
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RB Leipzig followed up their emphatic 6-1 victory over Greuther Furth with a goalless draw at home against Eintracht Frankfurt before the international break.
That point helped Domenico Tedesco's side extend their unbeaten run across all competitions to nine matches and has also kept them inside the top four on goal difference ahead of fifth-placed Freiburg.
Leipzig's impressive form has seen them accumulate 23 Bundesliga points since the turn of the year, more than any other team in the division. Die Roten Bullen were seemingly at risk of failing to qualify for Europe after their rocky start to the season, but they are now in a strong position to finish in the top six for the sixth successive year since their promotion to the top flight in 2016.
Tedesco's men head into Saturday's contest having won only one of their last nine meetings with Dortmund; however, that solitary victory came in their most recent encounter against BVB at the Red Bull Arena, where they won 2-1 in November thanks to goals from Christopher Nkunku and Yussuf Poulsen.
Leipzig have struggled defensively against Dortmund for a number of years, conceding in each of their last 11 meetings across all competitions and letting in at least two goals on seven of these occasions. Their only victory against BVB without conceding was in fact their very first meeting against them, winning 1-0 back in September 2016.
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Team News
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Dortmund's versatile midfielder Emre Can is the most likely candidate to start at right-back, as Thomas Meunier (hamstring), Felix Passlack (muscle) and Mateu Morey (ACL) are all ruled out with injuries.
Nico Schulz (muscle), Youssoufa Moukoko (hamstring), Steffen Tigges (ankle) and Marcel Schmelzer (ACL) are also sidelined due to injury, though Mahmoud Dahoud is available after serving a one-match suspension and he will compete with Jude Bellingham and Axel Witsel for a place in centre-midfield.
Giovanni Reyna only returned to Germany from international duty with the USA on Thursday evening, but the playmaker should be available to feature this weekend, while Haaland is also set to be in contention to play despite picking up a minor knock in Norway's 9-0 friendly win over Armenia, a game in which the striker scored twice.
Marco Reus missed Dortmund's last game due to illness, but the forward could return to the starting lineup this weekend and play on the right flank, with Julian Brandt or Thorgan Hazard to operate on the opposite wing.
As for Leipzig, they will be without forward Yussuf Poulsen, who is suffering with a groin injury, while defender Lukas Klostermann (muscle) and backup goalkeeper Philipp Tschauner (illness) are also sidelined.
Emil Forsberg and Dominik Szoboszlai will both be looking to force their way into the first XI; however, playmaker Dani Olmo and in-form star Nkunku – who has netted 15 goals and provided 11 assists in 27 league appearances this term – could start again in advanced midfield roles behind central striker Andre Silva.
Benjamin Henrichs and Nordi Mukiele will battle with each other to start at right wing-back, with Angelino operating on the opposite flank, while Mohamed Simakan, Willi Orban and Josko Gvardiol are all expected to play at centre-back.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Can, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Witsel, Bellingham; Reus, Reyna, Hazard; Haaland
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Simakan, Orban, Gvardiol; Henrichs, Laimer, Haidara, Angelino; Olmo, Nkunku; Silva
We say: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 RB Leipzig
With the ball hitting the back of the net at least three times in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, goals are to be expected this weekend.
Both Dortmund and Leipzig take good runs of form into this contest, but we feel that the hosts, with a fully fit Haaland in their side, should do enough to edge this intriguing contest.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 44%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.41%) and 0-1 (5.38%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
