Following an enthralling and end-to-end encounter on matchday three of the 2021-22 Champions League, RB Leipzig and Paris Saint-Germain prepare to renew hostilities on Wednesday night.
Les Parisiens came out on top 3-2 in their first meeting with Jesse Marsch's side, thanks in no small part to inspired showings from Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi.
Match preview
© Reuters
Life after Julian Nagelsmann has not exactly been rosy at RB Leipzig, who remain winless and pointless in the 2021-22 Champions League at the midway point in Group A, but they certainly gave PSG a good run for their money.
Marsch's men appeared to be travelling back to Germany with a memorable win in the bag at the Parc des Princes as Nordi Mukiele and Andre Silva cancelled out Kylian Mbappe's opener, but Messi struck twice in the second 45 minutes before Mbappe blazed a last-gasp spot kick over the bar.
A previous thumping at the hands of Manchester City and dismal 2-1 defeat to Club Brugge sees Leipzig sit rock bottom of the rankings with three group games left to play, and the Bundesliga side are guaranteed to finish the week in fourth no matter what transpires here.
Marsch's side do not exactly welcome PSG to the Red Bull Arena in great form either, as they were denied all three points in cruel fashion against Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend, with Yussuf Poulsen's strike cancelled out by Tuta's header in the fourth minute of second-half injury time.
Far from a consistent side on home soil - although they have won their last two against Bochum and Greuther Furth - Leipzig are already fighting an uphill battle to nab a top-two finish in Group A and could see those slim hopes evaporate with a less-than-desirable result this week.
© Reuters
The wounded champions taking on the relentless challengers in Ligue 1 only spelled one outcome during PSG's battle with Lille, although Mauricio Pochettino's side were made to work for their victory after Dogues hotshot Jonathan David opened the scoring in the first half.
However, centre-back Marquinhos produced a striker's finish with a well-taken volley after 74 minutes to draw his side back into the game, and in the last knockings of the contest, Angel Di Maria coolly slotted home in another somewhat unconvincing win for the league leaders.
At the end of the day, PSG's standing at the top of the table is the only statistic that counts, and with seven points taken from their opening three Champions League clashes, Pochettino's men remain one point clear of Manchester City at the top of Group A.
Les Parisiens have won three of their last four in all competitions heading into Wednesday's game - although all three of those successes came at the Parc des Princes - and Pochettino's side will be out to end a two-game winless and goalless run away from home at the Red Bull Arena.
Furthermore, PSG's only previous meeting with Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena ended in a 2-1 defeat back in November 2020, with Emil Forsberg and former Parisien Christopher Nkunku propelling the German side to victory on the day.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Leipzig have been boosted by the timely return of creative hub Dani Olmo ahead of this game, but he only came on for the final few minutes against Frankfurt and is highly unlikely to start just yet.
Defensive duo Lukas Klostermann and Marcel Halstenberg are both set to remain absent for the visit of PSG, while Brian Brobbey and Marcelo Saracchi also occupy spots in the infirmary.
With Olmo only expected to make the bench while Nkunku holds his place, Dominik Szoboszlai and Forsberg are set to do battle for the final spot in the forward triumvirate.
Meanwhile, PSG are reportedly preparing to make do without Messi for Wednesday's fixture, with the 34-year-old coming off at half time against Lille due to a combination of muscle discomfort and knee pain.
Pochettino is also without the services of Leandro Paredes, Marco Verratti and Sergio Ramos this week, but Mbappe is expected to return from an ear infection in time to lead the line.
Achraf Hakimi missed the Lille win through suspension but is set to displace Thilo Kehrer here, while Juan Bernat started for the first time in over a year on Friday, although Nuno Mendes should return for midweek.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Simakan, Orban, Gvardiol; Mukiele, Laimer, Haidara, Angelino; Nkunku, Forsberg; Silva
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Mendes; Herrera, Gueye, Wijnaldum; Di Maria, Mbappe, Neymar
We say: RB Leipzig 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain
Even without Messi leading the charge - although he has been far from his spectacular best this season anyway - PSG possess the firepower needed to record back-to-back wins over an inconsistent Leipzig outfit.
It is difficult to see Pochettino's rearguard keeping out an Nkunku-inspired Leipzig frontline, so a close affair should be in store, but PSG should prove why there is a seven-point chasm separating the two sides this week.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 53.33%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 23.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.78%) and 0-2 (8.91%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-0 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
