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[monks data]
Reading logo
Championship | Gameweek 42
Apr 16, 2021 at 6pm UK
Madejski Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Reading
1 - 1
Cardiff

Meite (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Moore (87' pen.)
Nelson (46'), Pack (50'), Brown (78')

Preview: Reading vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Reading and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Reading and Cardiff City will both be looking to return to winning ways in the Championship when they meet at the Madejski Stadium on Friday evening.

The Royals lost 2-0 to Watford last time out and have now dropped out of the playoffs, while Cardiff are seven points worse off after going three games without a win.


Match preview

Reading's Michael Olise celebrates with his teamates after he scores their first goal against Derby County in the Championship on April 5, 2021© Reuters

Reading had a four-point margin on the chasing pack just a month ago, but a run of one win in six has seen them drop down the table into seventh place.

Friday's disappointing defeat at Vicarage Road opened the door for Barnsley and Bournemouth to pounce, and both sides have taken full advantage of Reading's recent blip.

That is not to say the Royals' promotion hopes are dead and buried, though, as they still have six games to make up a five-point gap on either Barnsley or Bournemouth.

With those two sides not in action until later in the weekend, Veljko Paunovic's men have a chance to increase the pressure with victory against Cardiff on Friday.

While the Royals' form has been inconsistent over the past month, they have won three and drawn one of their last four at home.

Reading also have a very good record against Cardiff, going 10 without defeat in this fixture since November 2015, though six of those matches have finished all square.

Cardiff City manager Mick McCarthy pictured on February 16, 2021© Reuters

Cardiff's own promotion hopes were effectively ended this week after being pegged back late on in a 2-2 draw with Blackburn Rovers.

That loss, combined with victory for Bournemouth in their midweek game in hand, means that Mick McCarthy's side are 12 points off the playoffs with 15 points to play for.

City have gone three games without a win since beating rivals Swansea City 1-0 nearly a month ago, having also lost to Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Wednesday since then.

Indeed, the Welsh side have conceded eight goals and scored twice across those three fixtures, which McCarthy will be looking to put right in Berkshire on Friday.

However, the Yorkshireman has lost his last six away league matches against Reading since a 2-0 win for Sunderland in March 2004.

Reading Championship form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Cardiff City's Harry Wilson celebrates scoring with teammates against Barnsley on November 3, 2020© Reuters

John Swift is in contention for a return to the Reading side after missing their last 14 matches through injury, though that is likely to come from the substitutes' bench.

Michael Morrison and Tom McIntyre are the hosts' only confirmed absentees for this game, while Felipe Araruna is unlikely to be involved as he builds up his fitness.

George Puscas got the nod to lead the line against Watford, but Paunovic may elect to go with Lucas Joao here. Sam Baldock and Sone Aluko are also contenders to come into the side.

Cardiff's disappointing run has coincided with the absence of skipper Sean Morrison, who is not expected to return against his former side on Friday.

Kieffer Moore has enjoyed a fine first campaign for the Bluebirds but is clearly in need of a rest, though McCarthy does not really have any alternative options up top.

Harry Wilson assisted both goals against Blackburn and should start at the Madejski Stadium, but there could be changes elsewhere, with Joe Ralls pushing for a recall in midfield.

Reading possible starting lineup:
Cabral; Yiadom, Holmes, Moore, Gibson; Rinomhota, Laurent; Meite, Olise, Ejaria; Puscas

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Nelson, Flint, Brown; Sang, Vaulks, Ralls, Ng; Wilson; Murphy, Moore


SM words green background

We say: Reading 2-1 Cardiff City

Reading have more to play for than Cardiff heading into Friday's match, with their playoff hopes still alive heading into the final straight.

The Royals have a good record at the Madejski Stadium and are without defeat against Cardiff in 10 games, so we are backing the home team to edge this one.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 37.12%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (11.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Reading vs Cardiff

Reading
74.2%
Draw
13.6%
Cardiff City
12.1%
66
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Reading manager Veljko Paunovic pictured in December 2020
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