Reading host Luton Town on Boxing Day with the Royals looking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats and keep in touch with the leading pack.
Despite a very strong start to the season, Reading have fallen to eighth position and welcome a much-improved Luton side to the Madejski Stadium in this festive fixture.
Match preview
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After winning seven of their opening eight Championship fixtures, drawing the other one, Veljko Paunovic's men have picked up just three more victories in their following 12 league matches.
They currently find themselves just outside the playoff places behind Stoke City on goal difference and will be hoping to move back into the top six over the coming weeks.
Reading have missed leading scorer Lucas Joao, who has been absent through injury in their last three outings.
The Portuguese forward has bagged 11 goals in 2020-21, and without him, Paunovic's side have lost back-to-back encounters.
Defence has been a big issue for the Royals this campaign, with their 26 conceded meaning they have the second-worst defensive record in the top half of the table, a statistic that will have to change if they are to rediscover their early season form.
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Luton survived by the smallest of margins in 2019-20 but are enjoying a much more comfortable campaign this time around.
The return of Nathan Jones has seen the good times return to Kenilworth Road, with the Hatters currently sitting in 14th position, 11 points above the relegation zone.
While Jones's men struggle to put the ball in the back of the opposition net at times, they are extremely adept at keeping it out of theirs.
Just 21 goals have been conceded by Luton in 20 Championship games, meaning they have the second meanest defence in the bottom half of the table.
A draw with high flying Bournemouth last time out will have maintained the team's confidence, and they will be hopeful of picking up all three points coming into this one.
Reading Championship form: DWLWLL
Luton Town Championship form: WLDWLD
Team News
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Reading are suffering from a string of injuries, although star striker Joao is in contention to make his return to the squad after a short absence.
Central midfielder John Swift is a long-term absentee with a hamstring injury and he keeps full-back Felipe Araruna and striker George Puscas company on the treatment table.
Influential midfielder Glen Rea has served his one-match ban and should return to the Luton starting lineup at the weekend.
Eunan O'Kane is the only absentee for Jones with the 30-year-old still unavailable following a broken leg.
Reading possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Holmes, Morrison, Moore, Gibson; Rinomhota, Laurent; Olise, Semedo, Ejaria; Baldock
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Shea; Cranie, Lockyer, Bradley, Potts; Rea, Dewsbury-Hall; Cornick, Mpanzu, Moncur; Collins
We say: Reading 1-1 Luton Town
The two teams are in similar form coming into this clash, and there will not be much to separate the sides on the day. A share of the spoils would satisfy both managers, and they could settle for a point at the start of this festive fixture pile-up.
Top betting tip
George Cannon
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 43.53%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 28.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.67%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
