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Preview: Osasuna vs. Real Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Osasuna and Real Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Real Madrid will be looking to make it back-to-back wins in La Liga when they continue their 2020-21 campaign away to a struggling Osasuna on Saturday night.

Los Blancos are currently second in the table, two points behind leaders Atletico Madrid, while Osasuna occupy 19th position, having only picked up 14 points from their opening 16 games of the season.


Match preview

Osasuna manager Jagoba Arrasate in August 2019.© Reuters

Osasuna have won three, drawn five and lost eight of their 16 league matches this season to collect 14 points, which has left them down in 19th spot, just two points ahead of basement side Huesca.

Los Rojillos are not in a disastrous position considering that they are just two points from the safety of 17th with a game in hand, but there is no getting away from the fact that it has been a disappointing season to date.

Jagoba Arrasate's side, who finished 10th in La Liga last season, returned to this level of football in 2019 courtesy of winning the Segunda Division and will be determined to consolidate in the top flight.

Osasuna have not actually won in the league since beating Athletic Bilbao on October 24, but they have shared the points in their last three matches with Elche, Alaves and Real Sociedad.

Arrasate's team will enter this weekend's contest off the back of a win, meanwhile, having scored three unanswered goals against Olot in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday night.

Real Madrid's Lucas Vazquez celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Celta Vigo on January 2, 2021© Reuters

Madrid, meanwhile, will enter Saturday's contest off the back of a 2-0 win over Celta Vigo last weekend, with Lucas Vazquez and Marco Asensio on the scoresheet for the reigning champions.

Los Blancos dropped two points at Elche on December 30 but have been in excellent form in the league, winning seven of their last eight to rise into second position in the table.

Zinedine Zidane's side are currently two points behind leaders Atletico Madrid, although the latter have two games in hand, which is an indication of how impressive they have been in 2020-21.

The champions must keep winning and hope that Atletico drop points, and they will certainly fancy their chances of beating struggling Osasuna in Pamplona.

Madrid have actually been victorious in each of their last five league games with Osasuna, including a 4-1 win in the corresponding game last term, while they have not lost to Saturday's opponents since 2011.

Osasuna La Liga form: LLLDDD
Osasuna form (all competitions): WLDDDW

Real Madrid La Liga form: WWWWDW


Team News

Real Madrid's Casemiro celebrates during the La Liga clash with Granada on December 23, 2020© Reuters

Osasuna will be unable to call upon Chimy Avila or Ruben Martinez this weekend through injury, but Oier is back from a suspension, while Darko Brasanac should shake off a knock to start in midfield.

Jonathan Calleri was given the nod over Ante Budimir against Sociedad last time out, and the Argentine's goal is likely to mean that he keeps his position in the final third of the field.

Roberto Torres and Facundo Roncaglia were both on the bench last weekend but should return to the XI for this match, while Ruben Garcia, who was not involved against Olot, is expected to be in the side.

As for Madrid, Rodrygo Goes is still unavailable through injury, while Dani Carvajal is suspended due to the yellow card that he picked up against Celta.

Sergio Ramos missed out last weekend due to a stomach issue, but the club captain, who has still not signed a new contract, should be back in the starting XI for this game.

Carvajal's absence could see Vazquez start at right-back, meaning that Vinicius Junior could earn a spot in the final third alongside Karim Benzema and Asensio.

Eden Hazard was involved late on against Celta as he continues his recovery from injury, but the Belgium international is not thought to be ready to start for Los Blancos.

Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Roncaglia, D Garcia, Hernandez, Cruz; Moncayola, Oier, Brasanac; R Garcia, Calleri, Torres

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Ramos, Varane, Mendy; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos; Asensio, Benzema, Vinicius


SM words green background

We say: Osasuna 0-2 Real Madrid

Madrid's recent form has been excellent, and we are finding it difficult to back anything other than a comfortable away win this weekend. Osasuna have drawn their last three but have not won since the end of October and have struggled for results against the capital giants.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 69.12%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 11.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.08%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Osasuna vs Real Madrid

Osasuna
7.9%
Draw
3.4%
Real Madrid
88.7%
177
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Sergio Ramos in action for Real Madrid on December 12, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona13110240122833
2Real Madrid1283125111427
3Atletico MadridAtletico137511971226
4Villarreal127322319424
5Osasuna136341720-321
6Athletic Bilbao135531913620
7Real BetisBetis135531412220
8Real Sociedad135351110118
9Mallorca135351010018
10GironaGirona135351617-118
11Celta Vigo135262022-217
12Rayo Vallecano124441313016
13Sevilla134361218-615
14Leganes133551316-314
15AlavesAlaves134181422-813
16Las PalmasLas Palmas133371622-612
17Getafe13175811-310
18Espanyol123181122-1110
19Real ValladolidValladolid132381025-159
20Valencia11146817-97


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