With both sides looking to bounce back from respective defeats last time out, Real Salt Lake and Austin FC go head-to-head at the Rio Tinto Stadium on Sunday.
The teams are separated by just three places and four points in the league table, and this weekend's clash has all the makings of an enthralling affair.
Match preview
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Real Salt Lake failed to win away from home for the fifth game running following a 2-0 defeat to Nashville SC at the Nissan Stadium on Sunday.
Off the back of a relatively uneventful opening 45 minutes, second-half goals from David Romney and CJ Sapong put Pablo Mastroeni's men to the sword.
Having amassed 16 points across 11 outings this term, the Claret and Cobalt currently sit fifth in the Western Conference standings.
Next up for the Utah-based outfit is the challenge of an opposing side who have a mixed record in this fixture, with the previous two meetings ending in a win and a loss apiece.
Still unbeaten in all four of their league matches so far on home turf where they have managed 10 of a possible 12 points, Sunday's hosts will fancy themselves to come out on top in this one.
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Austin saw their two-game winning run snapped following a 1-0 loss to Los Angeles Galaxy at the Q2 Stadium on Monday.
Marco Delgado broke the deadlock in the sixth minute and that proved to be the all-important moment for Josh Wolff's men in Texas.
Consequently, the Oaks have relinquished top spot in the Western Conference as they now sit second, albeit only three points adrift of current leaders LA Galaxy.
Sunday's visitors have picked up maximum points from their last two league matches away from home and now go in search of a third straight triumph on the road.
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Team News
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Zack Farnsworth and Bret Halsey are yet to feature this term as they continue to nurse knee and leg injuries respectively.
Dutch defender Johan Kappelhof is also unavailable for Sunday's hosts due to a long-term ankle problem, while Jonathan Menendez misses out through injury.
Meanwhile, Sergio Cordova could make his return to action having sat out the last match with a minor muscle injury.
Brad Stuver was hauled off seven minutes into Austin's last league game and the goalkeeper is not expected to be back in time to play a part in this one.
This should see 28-year-old Andrew Tarbell retain his place between the sticks for what would be only a fourth appearance of the season.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
MacMath; Brody, Silva, Glad, Herrera; Meram, Ruiz, Luiz, Chang; Rubin, Wood
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Tarbell; Gallagher, Gabrielsen, Cascante, Lima; Ring, Pereira; Finlay, Driussi, Fagundez; Urruti
We say: Real Salt Lake 1-0 Austin FC
Real Salt Lake's near-perfect home record this term means that it is hard to envisage any other outcome than a home win, and while we expect the visitors to put up a good fight, we are backing the hosts to emerge victorious.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 44.23%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 30.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Salt Lake would win this match.
