The New York Red Bulls will renew their rivalry with the New England Revolution this weekend as they wrap up the month of July with a matinee affair at Red Bull Arena.
It will be a match up of two teams heading in the opposite direction, with New York winless in their last three encounters, while the Revs lead the Supporters' Shield standings and have won their last three matches.
Match preview
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While struggling to sustain a high level of intensity for 90 minutes, consistency has become an issue for the Red Bulls lately, as they have fallen below the playoff line in the East in ninth place, four points behind CF Montreal.
Last Sunday, their manager Gerhard Struber said that his players lacked the hunger and desire needed versus DC United, firing only one shot on target, despite having 61% possession, as they ultimately lost 1-0.
Over the past two weeks, they have not executed their forward running very effectively, and they have created very few scoring opportunities against two sides in DC and Toronto, who are on the outside of the playoff bubble with TFC conceding the most goals in MLS (32).
New York will be happy to be returning to Red Bull Arena, which has become a bit of a fortress lately and a place in which the Red Bulls are unbeaten in their last five games.
Playing a more wide-open style against a team as potent as New England may not be the best strategy this weekend, as the Red Bulls have conceded three goals in each of their two matches versus the Revs this year, losing both times.
There are traditionally many goals scored in this league, but New York do not have the depth to match New England in the goalscoring department.
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With three wins in nine days, the New England Revolution have proven that they can respond and play well in the face of adversity.
A few weeks ago, Bruce Arena and his side suffered their first minor setback of the season, going winless in three straight games.
New England used their 10-day break in between their 3-2 defeat to Toronto and their game with Atlanta United to fix their shaky defence, and that work has paid off, as they have kept two clean sheets on their current three-game winning streak while scoring eight goals.
The Revs know how to score on the road, with over half of their goals so far this year (16 of 30) coming away from home.
What has to be encouraging for this team is that virtually the entire roster have contributed to this team's success, as Arena has utilized 18 different players over their nine-day stretch, where they captured nine points.
They have done all of this despite not having two of their key contributors, who are away on international duty at the Gold Cup, which is a testament as to how talented this group really is.
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Team News
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Midfielder Youba Diarra remains sidelined with a muscle injury, centre-back Aaron Long is out for the season with an Achilles tendon rupture, Andres Reyes has a hamstring problem, Sean Nealis has a thigh injury alongside Daniel Royer, while Andrew Gutman was an unused substitute last Sunday, having recovered from a minor knee issue.
Fabio is without a goal in his last three fixtures, while their joint-leading goalscorer Caden Clark has not found the back of the net since May 29 in a 2-1 win over Orlando City.
The Red Bulls made two changes to their starting lineup versus DC from their previous match as Clark replaced Frankie Amaya in midfield, and their other top goalscorer Cristian Casseres started instead of Wikelman Carmona.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner and winger Tajon Buchanan have been integral parts of the success of the United States and Canada respectively at the Gold Cup, and both will not be available for the Revs this weekend.
Striker Gustavo Bou has found his goalscoring form with three goals in his last three games, including a brace against Montreal, and he now has nine for the season, which is good for third in MLS behind Chicharito and Raul Ruidiaz.
Defensive midfielder Luis Caicedo is out with a leg injury, Matt Polster logged his 10th 90-minute match over the weekend, Carles Gil recorded his league-leading 13th assist and Andrew Farrell made his 255th appearance for the team, surpassing Matt Reis for third all-time.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Tolkin, Tarek, Pendant, Duncan; Clark, Davis, Amaya; Carmona; Fabio, Klimala
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Knighton; Bye, Farrell, Bell, DeLaGarza; Caldwell, Polster, Traustason; Gil; Buksa, Bou
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-1 New England Revolution
There is something about Red Bull Arena that seems to bring out the best in New York, who have won four of their last five fixtures at home, scoring seven goals while conceding only twice.
The Revs may be the best team in the league at the moment, but they have never won at Red Bull Arena, losing in six of their last seven visits there.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 32.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
