New York Red Bulls play host to New York City FC at Red Bull Arena on Wednesday in a much-anticipated Hudson River Derby showdown.
NYCFC enter this game third in the Eastern Conference, 12 points better off than their state rivals with the end of the regular season drawing to a close.
Match preview
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After hitting a poor run of form that saw them collect one point from a possible nine, City picked up a welcome victory away at FC Cincinnati on Saturday.
Brenner had given lowly Cincinnati a surprise early lead at TQL Stadium, but Keaton Parks restored parity and Valentin Castellanos scored a winner from the penalty spot.
That victory moved Ronny Deila's men back into the top three and now four points clear of the chasing pack in the race for an MLS Cup Playoffs berth.
After snapping a seven-game winless run on the road, the Pigeons will now be looking to make it back-to-back away triumphs when they make the short trip to rivals Red Bulls.
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Gerhard Struber's men also brought an end to a three-game winless run overall last time out with a 4-0 victory against an in-form Inter Miami side.
Fabio notched a second-half brace following earlier goals from Patryk Klimala and Omir Fernandez as the Red Bulls romped to victory against their 10-man opponents.
That was the RBNY's largest margin of victory in over two years, and was the first time they have scored more than twice in a game in 2021.
Struber's charges picked the perfect time to kickstart their campaign, knowing that another win here will give them bragging rights and also keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
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Team News
Aaron Long remains a long-term absentee for the Red Bulls, while Ryan Meara is struggling with a groin injury.
Kyle Duncan made the most of his substitute appearance in the Inter Miami rout by bagging an assist and may come into Struber's thoughts here.
Like Struber, Deila may also consider tweaking a winning formula given the quick turnaround in games.
Christopher Gloster was handed a first start last time out but was replaced by Andres Jasson at half time, and the latter may get the nod from the start on Wednesday.
Gudmundur Thorarinsson has assisted goals in back-to-back games, having previously set up just one in his first 36 MLS outings, and seems certain to retain his place at left-back.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Gutman, Nealis, Edwards; Duncan, Yearwood, Davis, Tolkin; Clark, Klimala, Casseres
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Tinnerholm, Callens, Chanot, Thorarinsson; Morales, Parks; Tajouri-Shradi, Moralez, Medina; Castellanos
We say: New York Red Bulls 1-2 New York City FC
The Red Bulls have won just four of the last 12 Hudson River Derbies with City, though that run includes three straight wins at Red Bull Arena.
Struber's side have struggled for consistency all season long, however, and we are backing the visitors to make it back-to-back victories on the road in midweek.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 39.29%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
