The New York Red Bulls will look to extend their unbeaten run to a season-long three games when they host the Philadelphia Union at Red Bull Arena on Thursday.
The Red Bulls scored a late goal against Orlando last weekend to win their first road game of 2021 2-1, while the Union conceded early versus Nashville SC and could not recover, losing 1-0.
Match preview
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New York began the month of July on a positive note, with their first road victory this season, against one of the best teams in the league in the Lions, who had won three in a row before that defeat.
Scoring twice against the top defensive unit in the Eastern Conference, not to mention a side that had only conceded once at home until last weekend, has to be a huge confidence boost for this team, who are back in a playoff position with 16 points from 11 games.
Their position, though, is a precarious one, given that the Columbus Crew and CF Montreal are even with New York on points, with the Red Bulls ahead on goal difference, so Gerhard Struber knows that his side cannot take their foot off the gas.
As good as they will feel about finally winning on the road, they will be excited to come home to the friendly confines of Red Bull Arena, where they have won four consecutive matches, scoring eight goals while conceding only once in that span.
Thursday will be another big test to see how far this team have come, going up against one of the MLS Cup favourites in Philadelphia, a side that they have lost three consecutive regular-season games against, failing to score against the Union in all three of those matches.
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After capturing the Supporters' Shield in 2020, their first trophy in franchise history, the bar has been set even higher for Jim Curtin and the Union this season, and until recently, they have delivered.
A side who allowed the fewest number of goals a year ago have become a bit unglued over their past two fixtures, conceding three goals against the lowest-scoring team in MLS, the Chicago Fire, and then allowing one goal after only two minutes in a loss to Nashville on Saturday,
Despite all of that, Philly is still in a good position in third place in the Eastern Conference, only five points behind the top-seeded New England Revolution, and they have not lost consecutive games since their 2019 campaign.
If this team wants to maintain their current position or move up the table, earning points from their next three fixtures will be crucial as they face three teams who are only three points below them or above them in the standings (New York, DC United and Orlando City).
The Union have usually controlled the play in most of their matches, although they seem to struggle in the early stages, conceding three times in the first five minutes of a game this season and failing to win on each occasion.
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Team News
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The Red Bulls will be without central midfielder Youba Diarra, who has a muscle injury, while centre-back Aaron Long is unlikely to see the field for a long time with an Achilles tendon rupture.
Their goalkeeper Carlos is second in MLS with four clean sheets, three of which have come at Red Bull Arena, while their leading goalscorer Caden Clark is without a goal in his last four matches, while all four of his strikes this season have come at home.
Defender Sean Nealis has been solid in central defence, with 29 interceptions on the season, and both goals that Fabio has scored in the regular season have been match winners.
Philly will be without several key players on international duty for the Gold Cup, including goalkeeper Andre Blake, their leading goalscorer Cory Burke and defender Alvas Powell, who are all representing Jamaica.
Midfielder Jack de Vries has yet to recover from his concussion sustained in early April, while right midfielder Ilsinho is still suffering the effects of a groin injury.
Leon Flach has been invaluable for Jim Curtin and the Union, as the versatile midfielder, who can also play left-back, is second in tackles won with 26.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Tolkin, Nealis, Edwards, Duncan; Amaya, Davis, Harper, Casseres; Klimala, Fabio
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Freese; Wagner, Elliot, Glesnes, Collin; Martinez, Flach, Sullivan; Monteiro; Przybylko, Santos
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-1 Philadelphia Union
The Red Bulls have started to come together after a difficult opening two games of the regular season, and they are a tough team to beat when they play at Red Bull Arena.
Philadelphia always seem to respond well after a tough outing, but they have shown that they can be vulnerable lately at the back, and they will not be able to count on the MLS co-leader in saves, Andre Blake, who is on international duty at the Gold Cup.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 32.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
