The first fixture of the Europa League playoff round takes place on Tuesday night, as Red Star Belgrade welcome CFR Cluj to the Rajko Mitic Stadium in their first-leg battle.
The Serbian champions dropped down from the Champions League following a 2-1 aggregate defeat to Sheriff Tiraspol, while Cluj were knocked out 4-2 over two legs by Young Boys in Europe's elite tournament.
Match preview
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An unbeaten start to their Serbian SuperLiga title defence did not translate into perfect fortunes in the Champions League for Red Star Belgrade, who initially suffered a 2-1 defeat to Kairat in the second qualifying round before thumping them 5-0 in the return leg.
Dejan Stankovic's men were considered favourites against Moldovan outfit Sheriff in the third round of qualifying but could only register a 1-1 draw on home soil before their trip to the Sheriff Stadium, where Danilo Arboleda's winner on the stroke of half time ended their hopes of a third group stage appearance in four seasons.
Instead, Red Star - who did not have to traverse a domestic encounter in preparation for Tuesday's game - will aim to make a name for themselves in the Europa League once again after Stankovic's return to San Siro last season saw them come so close yet so far against AC Milan, who advanced to the last 16 on away goals.
Having managed to extend their unbeaten domestic run to 43 games with three wins and a draw from the 2021-22 season so far, Red Star are in no position to consider a campaign without European football, and they have not lost in any competition at home since a 6-0 thrashing at the hands of Bayern Munich in November 2019.
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Cluj sent Borac Banja Luka and Lincoln Red Imps packing in the Champions League before preparing for a clash with BSC Young Boys in which they were the clear underdogs, although a 1-1 draw in the first leg at home did catch the eye before last week's return leg in Switzerland.
However, their opponents soon lived up to their favourites tag in the second leg after Cluj attacker Billel Omrani opened the scoring, as Jordan Siebatcheu netted twice while Nicolas Ngamaleu got himself on the scoresheet during a goal-laden first half, before Alexandru Paun was sent for an early bath for two yellow cards.
The result meant that Cluj's wait for a first Champions League group stage appearance since the 2012-13 season continues, but Marius Sumudica's side managed to keep their 100% Liga 1 record going with a 1-0 win over FCV Farul on August 13, their fifth win from as many matches in league action this term.
The Romanian side's 2020-21 Europa League stint ended in the group stages, with recent foes Young Boys present in that section, but Cluj would do well to translate their league form into success in Europe against a Red Star side just as dominant domestically.
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Team News
Red Star midfielder Sekou Sanogo was forced off with an injury during the second period of his side's loss to Sheriff last week, and it remains to be seen if the 32-year-old will shake off the issue in time for Tuesday.
Njegos Petrovic could deputise in the middle of the park if Sanogo is not passed fit, while attacker Zeljko Gavric completed a move to Ludogorets just last week.
Striker Lois Diony was one of two half-time withdrawals in Tiraspol during a weak attacking performance, but the Frenchman should still start up top here regardless.
Cluj attacker Alexandru Chipciu was withdrawn after just 19 minutes against FCV Farul with an ankle issue, and he will take his place on the sidelines for this game alongside the suspended Paun.
Valentin Costache could fill the void on the left-hand side for the first leg, while Omrani must fend off competition from Gabriel Debeljuh - who scored the winner at the weekend - for another start up front.
Alexandru Ionita continues to serve a doping ban until the end of September, while centre-back Andrei Burca completes the hosts' absentees list with a knee strain.
Red Star Belgrade possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Gajic, Dragovic, Degenek, Rodic; Petrovic, Ivanic; Fardou Ben, Falco, Katai; Diony
CFR Cluj possible starting lineup:
Arlauskis; Manea, Graovac, Cestor, Camora; Fofana, Rodriguez, Sigurjonsson; Deac, Debeljuh, Costache
We say: Red Star Belgrade 2-1 CFR Cluj
Expect nothing less than a tightly-contested first leg between two sides in stellar domestic form, but Red Star's astonishing home record is simply too good to ignore.
The visitors know how to find the back of the net and should have enough in the tank to push their hosts to the limit, but we still expect the Serbian side to eke out a narrow win.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 52.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for CFR Cluj had a probability of 23.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a CFR Cluj win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Red Star Belgrade would win this match.
